I’m on the road today and tomorrow so posts will be more abbreviated than usual, but that’s hardly going to matter if Deadspin keeps doing my job for me:
The lockout has officially arrived when newspapers start reporting half-baked economic impact projections that are so far removed from reality as to be laughable. You know the sort. “Team X brings in so much money, without them the city would go broke and revert to feudalism OMG.” These studies are usually trotted out to justify building billion-dollar taxpayer funded stadiums, so using one to sound the alarm on a labor stoppage is somewhat less odious, if no less full of shit.
Deadspin’s Barry Petchesky goes on to outline exactly why these economic impact projections — this particular one claims the city of Detroit will be out $84.4 million if there’s no NHL season — are full of shit, including inflated multipliers (“If someone tips their bartender $10, then that bartender buys a hat for $10, that’s not $20 added to the economy. That’s not how money works.”), blurring of the difference between economic activity and actual tax revenue (“Attendance? Merchandise? Concessions? That goes straight into the Red Wings’ pockets, not the city of Detroit’s.”), and failure to account for the substitution effect (“People tend to spend whatever disposable income they have, and if they’re not going to hockey games, they’re going to do something else with it.”).