Sorry to be late with the posting today, but I had a morning appointment and time got away from me and anyway Calgary and Alberta and the Canadian government have apparently settled their $430 million difference over paying for a 2026 Winter Olympics bid, meaning the plan will now go to a public vote on November 13 as previously scheduled.
How on earth did this happen, after just the night before everything seemed to be headed for the bid to be pulled amid a budget stalemate? Partly by some sleight of hand: The total projected bid cost is now just $2.875 billion, down from $3 billion, but given that the typical Olympics goes 156% over budget, both those numbers should be treated as fictitious anyway. As for who’ll pay for what share of that:
From the City of Calgary, $370 million in cash, plus another $20 million to cover a premium on a $200-million insurance policy against cost over-runs, for a total of $390 million.
From the City of Calgary and Government of Alberta, $150 million in pre-authorized improvements to Victoria Park and access to the Calgary Stampede grounds.
From the Government of Alberta, $700 million in cash.
From the Government of Canada, $1.423 billion, which matches the amounts committed to the core event costs by the province, city and Town of Canmore; also, $30 million in “leveraging initiatives” which the letter said are identified in the hosting plan.
So basically Calgary and Alberta put in an extra $170 million, the feds put in $47 million less, and the total public contribution ($2.69 billion) is nearly $200 million short of the actual total public cost. Numbers are fun!
The numbers work out better if the $200 million insurance plan is counted as a city expenditure toward the $2.875 billion cost. But if it’s part of the cost, it’s not for overruns — you’re really saying that the projected cost is now $2.675 billion, plus have an insurance policy for the next $200 million. Seriously, did somebody major in doubletalk here?
Furthermore, an insurance policy against $200 million in cost overruns doesn’t do much good if the overruns are more than $200 million — which, as noted above, they’re almost certain to be — so who covers any additional costs?
Interestingly, as of last night one important decisionmaker hadn’t officially signed onto the deal:
It was signed by Alberta Premier Rachel Notley, federal Minister of Sport Kirsty Duncan and included a space for Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi’s signature.
Nenshi was “not available for comment” today according to several news outlets, and hasn’t tweeted in a while, so your guess is as good as mine what’s actually been agreed to and by whom. The city council is set to vote on a proposal to deep-six the Olympic bid entirely today, but presumably this announced agreement is set to forestall that, but councilmember still sounded unhappy about the new deal but they were being yelled at by angry luge fans NO SERIOUSLY ANGRY LUGE FANS and I need to go have a lie down right now. Let’s all tune in again tomorrow morning — morning, I promise this time — and see where the chips have fallen.
[UPDATE/CORRECTION: The $150 million Victoria Park money was actually already allocated, it’s just being newly counted as Olympic spending to qualify for matching funds. That’s good in that the city will just be on the hook for the $20 million in insurance premiums; it’s bad in that the only money actually committed to Olympic costs now comes to $2.325 billion, which is a lot less than the $3 billion originally projected. Basically, the feds seem to be dealing with the funding gap by saying, “Let’s shift $675 million from the ‘spending’ category to the ‘overrun’ category, and hope that we get lucky and it costs less than we expected!” This is not likely to go well.]