FoS 20: Frank Rashid on what two decades of fighting to save Tiger Stadium taught him about American politics

There were innumerable people who helped Joanna Cagan and I learn the nuances of the sports stadium subsidy business when we first began our research more than 20 years ago, but I think it’s say that no one devoted as much time and expertise to the cause as Frank Rashid. A Detroit English professor and lifelong Tigers fan, Rashid was one of five friends who in 1987 founded the Tiger Stadium Fan Club, which became one of the longest-lived community groups fighting first to preserve a historical ballpark they loved as fans, and later to stop the flow of public funds to a private stadium project as concerned citizens.

One of my most enduring memories of researching Field of Schemes is of Rashid driving me and a couple of friends around Detroit, regaling us with tales of past and present government mismanagement and racist urban planning, along with a few tidbits of Detroit baseball lore (“That’s the house Ty Cobb lived in when he supposedly murdered a guy”) — and afterward, getting to visit the model of a proposed Tiger Stadium renovation, designed by architects John and Judy Davids, that was in storage at Rashid’s house. I was fortunate enough to get to go to a couple of games at Tiger Stadium with Rashid and other Fan Club members, and even more fortunate to get to get to testify alongside him before Congress. The book and this website simply would not exist as such without him, and given the amount of advice and knowledge he and other Detroit activists shared with people facing similar battles in other communities, neither would much of the stadium subsidy opposition nationwide.

ND: Hi, and welcome to the Field of Schemes 20th anniversary interview series! I am extremely pleased today to be joined by Frank Rashid, who is one of the cofounders of the Tiger Stadium fan club and who recently celebrated, if I’m counting right, his 30th anniversary as a stadium activist. Am I right about that?

FR: I think that’s right, from ’87 to — yes, we did mark it.

ND: I had to think about when the Tigers were in the playoffs. The Darrell Evans series.

FR: That’s right.

ND: Well, thank you for being here. You’ve been somebody who’s been you know following and involved with this stuff even longer than me which is —

FR: I think I’ve been following it longer than you’ve been alive, Neil.

ND: It’s entirely possible! I know this story and readers of the book know the story, but tell me a little bit about how the fan club got founded.

FR: It actually started when I read a column by a classmate of mine, Mike Betzold, in the Free Press. He had gotten wind that the Tigers — under Tom Monaghan, this was some time ago — were making noises about a new stadium. Not even 10 years had passed since the publicly funded renovations that were supposed to guarantee the stadium’s future for at least 30 years from that point, from 1978. I didn’t know an awful lot about the stadium finances, but I at that point just loved Tiger Stadium — it was one of the locations in Detroit that was common ground for many of us and that we loved growing up. So I called Betzold and I said, “Is there anything that can be done about this?” So he said, “Well, you know, maybe we can put something together.”

So we got a few of our friends: my brother Kevin, Jerry Lemenu, Bob Buchta, and Mike and I, and we got together for a pizza at Buddy’s pizza in Detroit, which is an institution, and watched the Tigers get no-hit and still win against Baltimore, I think it was September 2nd. [Ed note: It was indeed September 2nd, but it was Cleveland the Tigers beat despite being one-hit.] And while we were doing that, we made plans for what we were going to do. We pooled our money, ordered bumper stickers and T-shirts, and handed them out to people outside the stadium for anybody who would give us their name on a mailing list. Some of them were even accurate!

And so we started a group, and it caught on. We got a lot of favorable publicity because we tried to keep the issue very light at first, make it kind of a pro sports thing, a feel-good “people love Tiger Stadium.” And got a lot of great publicity from the local media, and that got us members. Three hundred people showed up for our first membership meeting in February of ’88, just a few months after we got going. And they turned out to be some real loyal, strong, wonderful people — people like Catherine Darin and Eva Navarro and people who had been with us for a long time — both of those wonderful women are now deceased. But it was a wonderful gathering of people and it stayed light for a while, even as we were learning more and more about baseball stadium economics, and starting to realize what a boondoggle this really was in the city of Detroit. And how really wrong it was when you had a treasure — Tiger Stadium I would say is a treasure like Fenway Park or like Wrigley Field, both of which are still still going and still contributing to healthy franchise values for their team owners.

So as we got this going it became, especially for me, much less of a baseball — even less of a historic preservation issue, even though I’m a strong preservationist — it became really about “How can we be subsidizing the wealthiest people in our society?” And I came to realize this is not unusual, but this was the issue that landed in my lap. And so I started to fight it even more intensely because of that.

ND: One of the first realizations that Joanna Cagan and I had working on the book was we went into it thinking, like I think a lot of people who follow this casually did, that “Oh yeah, this is one of those battles where the sports fans are all saying ‘the teams need to get whatever they need,’ and the people who aren’t sports fans are saying ‘no, don’t spend our taxes.’ But there are plenty of people, whether it’s in Detroit or the Fenway Park folks — really you can pick the city, there are plenty of sports fans who are opposed to these deals, either in spite of or because of their involvement with the team.

FR: Yes, I think that’s it. You know, I recently have written something about this where I was thinking about the deal that the teams have with us. We give them our loyalty, we buy their merchandise, we listen to their advertising, we read their stuff in the newspapers. We support them. But we don’t have to turn over hundreds of millions of public dollars that can go to other more worthy projects that are legitimate public interests. And that’s where the deal got broken. There are more intense Tiger fans than I was — but not too many. I just grew up loving this game, loving this team, loving the experience of baseball in Detroit and a Tiger Stadium. And to me they broke the deal. The illusion was that they were our team. The Tigers are our team. That’s what they sell. And I realized, no. That illusion doesn’t work for me anymore. And so it’s been really painful to realize that — that the loyalty isn’t mutual.

ND: Do you think that’s something that’s hard for sports fans to realize? Certainly plenty of fans resent their teams and their team owners for all sorts of different things whether it’s trading all their good players or charging too much for ticket prices — or tearing down a stadium. But it seems like it’s hard to navigate believing in the team as something that’s a communal experience. You wear the gear, but you at the same time are recognizing that it’s a corporation that’s owned by somebody — we may be attached to ordering things off of Amazon, but very few of us, I would think, wear hats with the Amazon logo.

FR: Yeah, it’s the same kind of thing. Hey, sell us this illusion that they are our team, and because we like it, we buy it! It’s the Detroit Tigers. It’s the Ford Motor Company, but it’s the Detroit Tigers. They’re ours. It’s the Boston Red Sox. It’s the New York Yankees. It’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. The teams belong to the community; that’s the illusion.

We willingly suspend our disbelief about about the fact that it’s a business and the owners may be a crook or a racist or whatever. But the team was ours. And that’s the hard part to realize that really that is an illusion. You can accept it for a while, and then sometimes it’s not so not so good anymore.

ND: So the Tiger Stadium battle went on, if we count it as starting from from ’87 , when did they finally, they left in —

FR: 1999 was the last game.

ND: And when did they tear it down?

FR: 2009, finally.

ND: So in the various stages, it went on for over 20 years. And when I tell people about the Tiger Stadium Fan Club , it’s always, well, this is one of the great success stories of citizen organizing — except for the end.

FR: Yeah, except for the fact that all of our work paid off in: not only do we have a new baseball stadium, we have a new football stadium, and a new arena! You can’t imagine what great success we all feel.

ND: It’s just like Star Wars, only if Darth Vader won at the end!

This is probably beyond the scope of a short interview, but what are some of the things that you feel like you learned during all that time, maybe that other people in other cities could take away from this in terms of anything from discoveries about the way that this system works to discoveries about what works and what doesn’t in terms of organizing.

FR: I think there are a lot of ways to answer that question. The large issues are: It opened my eyes in many ways to the way we subsidize the wealthy in this country and the ways stadiums are one instance of this and that that’s a larger battle. But this is an important part of it. And there’s a whole feeding frenzy on the stadium game — it’s not just the team owners and the players, it’s the construction people and the developers and the real estate people and the lawyers and a whole bunch of politicians, of course. And it’s all legal — I mean most of it is legal, as far as I know — but it’s a bad game. It’s something that’s stacked against regular folks. And so that’s part of it.

And I recognized too, through fighting two ballot initiatives — or one ballot initiative and one referendum — on this issue, that that system, it’s not just one person, one vote. Because the system is rigged in favor of those who are going to profit from the team. They can all contribute to a campaign. It’s Citizens United at the local level, because it’s their freedom of speech to be able to contribute to a pro stadium initiative. They’re the developers and they’re the bond attorneys and they’re the construction people — they’re all the people who are going to profit from this.

So when you are trying to take part in a referendum about a stadium issue, that’s great that we have those referendums — they should come to votes, they often don’t. But that doesn’t mean that it’s a fair fight. It’s not a fair fight. That’s something else, and it opened my eyes so the ways in which elections work.

There were a lot of larger issues I learned about as a result of this. I specialize as an academic in research about contemporary Detroit, in addition to its literature, and I have been made aware of the way in which cities work and the way development happens in cities, not always for the most altruistic or the most public spirited reasons.

So those are the large things. Along the way, though certainly we learned very early on — there were five of us to start with, and we were a bunch of writers and artists and teachers — we didn’t have the expertise to make this work. But if we got the word out, which we were able to do early on, to people who did know how to make it work, like the architects and the lawyers and the urban planners and people who just had influence, knowledge, ability that we didn’t have. That was our what we did. Andthe reason that the fight lasted as long as it did and was as successful as it was — ultimate failure though it ultimately became — was that there were all these great people who were brought together by their love of this ballpark and their interes, later on , in the subsidies for the wealthy. And that became kind of wonderful, meeting all these people that I wouldn’t otherwise have met. And how it jelled — how really great the effort was as a result of that process. I think I could, if I had the energy, start another organization, if I had a Tiger Stadium to work with, something that people loved. If I were able to pull together those diverse groups of people into this, that’s something really useful.

I also found out: Do not overbuy merchandise. When we did the first hug of Tiger Stadium I let two of my pals talk us into “Oh, we’re going to have so many people.” We had this souvenir book that we spent quite a bit on, itt was pretty glossy, pretty nice. And we ended up where we bought , I forget, 10,000 of them or something — we ended up with nine hundred and eighty that I had to get rid of. Along with several posters and all kinds of stuff like that.

ND: I think I still have a couple dozen of those in my closet.

FR: I think everybody in the United States might.

It was don’t believe what they say about how popular you are and how great you are. Be real careful about the money. When you’re grassroots you can’t waste money. And it took us a long time to get out of debt, and time and energy that would have been better spent working on the issue.

ND: That said, though, I think you did have was successes. The Fan Club story has tons of examples of both the power and the failure of American democracy, right? Not just the way that the referendums went , and the power of money there, but I always remember the story — I’m probably going to mangle it, but what was the governor’s fund —

FR: Oh, the Michigan strategic fund!

ND: That he managed to use as a slush fund and then, am I remembering right that it went to a state court and the ruling was, “Yeah, he’s not allowed to spend it without legislative approval, but we’re going to let it go this time”?

FR: Yes, exactly. That’s how they got the $55 million for Comerica Park. But then they went back to the well and got much more through the Michigan strategic fund for the hockey arena.

ND: Oh, that’s the same fund! I didn’t even realize.

FR: Yes. So this is a fund that if you go to their website, you look at what kind of money they give out, it’s supposed to be for worthy development projects: things that will help diversify Michigan’s economy, things that will help Detroit, help commercial districts. And you’ll see a few hundred thousand grant, 30,000 grant, maybe up to five or maybe ten million. But not 55 million, and not 260 million or whatever they ended up using from it for the hockey arena.

From what I can see, this is really unprecedented use of this fund. Some of it’s passthrough money that goes through this fund, but that’s the vehicle they use to make this happen. And that is not the way the fund was supposed to be used. It was set up by Democrats, by Jim Blanchard, to be a development fund to help diversify Michigan’s economy, badly in need of diversity. And the Republicans, John Engler in particular, opposed it, thought it was a terrible idea — big government. And he was going to close it down, and then lo and behold, when the stadium thing came up, he found a way to make use of it.

And then it kind of lay dormant. I shouldn’t say dormant — it was doing its good work through the Granholm administration. And then when the Ilitches wanted a hockey arena, they came back to Rick Snyder, the Republican governor now, and got it.

You know, I don’t understand the fiscal responsibility of this. Big government works for big business, but it doesn’t work for other folks.

ND: And that’s the thing again — there are some people who will approach this whole thing as “Why are you opposed to public spending on sports?” And at least for me, I feel like it’s not fundamentally about whether the government should ever spend money that helps sports projects, it’s about who the government is serving.

FR: That’s right.

ND: Is the government serving the public interest, or is it serving the interest of people with money? And you really cannot have better examples than Michigan and all these sports projects.

I wanted to talk to you a little bit about the list that became Chapter 4 of Field of Schemes, “The Art of the Steal.” I think you unintentionally started that by saying, “Somewhere I have a list of what the playbook is.” And I called you up, and I said, “Can I get that list?” And you said, “Well, we have to figure that out. It’s like a list or anything.”

FR: I remember that conversation.

ND: We sat down to figure out, here’s the things everybody does. It’s that there’s economic benefits of it, saying the team s going to move, it’s saying you can’t compete — whether that means compete monetarily or compete for players or compete on the field. And it seemed like this amazing snapshot of the mid-’90s sports business. And ten years later we came back to work on the new edition of the book, and we didn’t have to make any changes to that chapter at all. And if we did a new version of that now, I think it would be exactly the same, because it’s really the exact same same playbook. It just does not change.

Does that surprise you any, that it has managed to go on this long, and they’re just doing the same tactics over and over and over again, sort of cycling through them — if one doesn’t work, you try the next one. But did you expect that by the year 2018 we would be on to something different?

FR: Yes, you know, I did. And that’s another thing you learn is how short the memory of the public is — and of the press, and of a lot of political leaders and activists, even. We don’t really learn from what has happened and from the tricks that have been played on us before. And so a threat to move is going to still be a threat to move — people don’t want to take the chance.

And so all of those little steps that they follow, the little playbook on how to do this, are still very much in operation. I’m shocked. One of the funny things was that they used to say you know there’s Spalding concrete in Tiger Stadium — some cement fell down. Well, you know what happened about three years ago at Comerica Park? Some cement started to fall down. So I’m pretty sure we’re going to start hearing some noise about Comerica Park, just not safe and it’s time to time to start thinking of a new place.

ND: It’s almost 20 years old now, right?

FR: It’s almost 20 years old.

ND: That’s ancient in ballpark years!

FR: Yeah. So we will see.

The problem that I think we will have with a lot of the newer generation of stadiums is that so many of them are right downtown, and are supposedly anchors for all kinds of development, that in selling that aspect of it they’re going to have to figure out what do we do about this big gaping hole we’re going to leave in this area. One of the stages we should add is “Don’t talk about what’s going to happen to the other facility.” They never plan — at least they didn’t plan what was going to happen here for Joe Louis Arena or for Tiger Stadium before they move to the other facilities. That really should be part of the part of the discussion, since these are huge swaths of land that the city should have some plan for once they’re going to be abandoned. And right now they’re just starting to talk about what’s going to happen with Joe Louis Arena after they’ve already built this new arena.

ND: They still haven’t built the soccer stadium, so they can repurpose Comerica to be the soccer stadium. And build their baseball stadium somewhere else.

FR: Yeah, that might be what happens. But really, keep it simple and play to ignorance is part of what’s there. Don’t complicate it by worrying about what’s going to happen to the old place. Even though the civic leaders should be should be on them about that. That’s where they fall down on the job.

ND: So do you see a way that this is ever going to end? When Roger Noll, the sports economist, was here, he was saying, I think that the tide started to turn here. And, as I think I said to him, I’ve predicted the tide was turning before and been wrong, so I’m always hesitant to say that. But part of it’s just that I don’t know what kind of end game you can have. I think people are getting somewhat more skeptical. I think it doesn’t seem as unusual for people to say, “Well, of course economists all agree that sports stadiums aren’t worth big economic numbers and aren’t worth big subsidies. But again, it doesn’t seem like — every week or two it seems like it’s another team that comes out there and is saying, well, of course we need to get more money for renovations or for a new stadium. It’s hard to see it ending any time in our lifetimes.

FR: I kind of agree with you, Neil. But I also know that there is more awareness. There’s more awareness in Detroit. There was a big push — it didn’t work out well — in the wake of the arena deal, which was an obscene deal, because it was right after we declared bankruptcy! I mean, it was in the midst of all of this awful stuff with emergency managers, and taking money from the pensions of the public employees as part of the grand bargain, and threatening the Detroit Institute of Arts collection, and oh, by the way we’re going to turn over nearly 300 million dollars, and the land, to the Ilitches for this new hockey arena.

So in a sense I think it was so obscene that there was more awareness. And then John Oliver came out — so there is a shared understanding among more people now. There was a movement to do a community benefits agreement in the wake of the Little Caesars Arena deal. And then of course the political establishment said, “Oh, good idea, but this one’s a little too you know strong in this way.” And so they put another one on the ballot and put all their strength behind that — Mayor Duggan, by the way. And that’s what we have. We have a very weak community benefits agreement — but there is a community benefits agreement. That language is now out there, and there is a there is a strong group of people, not just Tiger Stadium Fan Club members anymore, who realize what a bad deal this is.

ND: So maybe Roger is right in that the success that the movement to raise awareness at least about these deals has had is that team owners are increasingly … “too embarrassed” isn’t the right term, but that they can’t manage to stand up in public and demand quite the same lavishness of subsidies as they once did. So they’re resorting to, “Well, just give us a little bit here and give us some land and give us some tax breaks — which still adds up to hundreds of millions of dollars. But I guess that’s better than just being able to say, “Write us a blank check.” Although, of course, in Las Vegas the Raiders are practically getting a blank check.

FR: No, you’re right. It’s not going to be a sudden stop of this kind of stuff. Even Obama tried a couple of years in the budget to get rid of federal supports for these things. So there was a discussion; it was happening. And I’m finding it happening more on different levels and that we’re not the only ones bringing it up in Detroit, at least locally. And I think that’s true nationally, too. I think there’s awareness of it. That awareness doesn’t always translate, as we know, into policy change, though. Because there’s too much of a gap between awareness, academic research, all of the things that contribute to our knowledge of how bad these deals really are, and the deal getting done right. The media are not always filling that gap of translating what we know about how bad these deals are into the discussion, because they’re still addicted in some ways to fairness, and they just play off two arguments against each other as if they’re of equal worth.

ND: “Fairness” in scare quotes, right? Not actual fairness, but “balance” and the fairness of “We’re not going to try figure out what’s true, it’s just about you know picking two people with opposing opinions and saying well, therefore…”

FR: And I think that’s changing a lot in the media. But it’s still there n the local media a lot. So until you can really inform the public and bring out the real discussion and the debate and what information exists, the folks with money can wage the campaign that is a a disinformation campaign.

ND: So I’ve got to ask you: Have you found yourself able to watch baseball again yet?

FR: If I’m sitting in a bar and the ball game is on, I will watch it. And I o go back sometimes late at night, when I can’t work anymore, and look at old things like Willie Mays making his catch on YouTube. I still get pleasure from the game. But it’s very hard to follow the Tigers. Much as I would never have believed it. I wonder now how I ever had the time to always make sure I had the radio on at a certain time and could go to 20 or 30 games a year, or however many I ended up going to, and following it in the papers. I spent a lot of time of my life doing this. And I’m puzzled as to how I made that happen.

ND: Is that a good feeling or a bad feeling?

FR: It is a relief. When you love something you’re obligated to it, and to suddenly find yourself free of the obligation, it’s not all bad. There are things I miss about it. But it’s not as much as I would have thought. The Frank Rashid in 1990 or 1985 or whenever I was the most rabid fan that I could have been would be very surprised that he was so able to let it go.

FoS 20 interview: Roger Noll thinks the stadium subsidy tide just might be turning

With 2018 being the 20th anniversary of the publication of the first edition of Field of Schemes — and also, not coincidentally, the 20th anniversary of the launch of this website — I wanted to do something special to mark the occasion. And so I am very pleased to announce the first installment of the FoS 20 interview series, where I chat with stadium and arena experts I’ve gotten to know over the last two decades to discuss where the subsidy racket has come and where it might be going.

The choice for guest #1 was an easy one: Stanford University economist Roger Noll was one of our first big interviews for the articles that ended up blossoming into our book. Noll continues to be one of the nation’s most knowledgeable followers of sports business, and if he still has lots to say that’s pessimistic about that world — those wagering on future success for the Las Vegas Raiders and Major League Soccer might want to avert their eyes here — he actually thinks there may be some signs of a light at the end of the subsidy tunnel.

Click the audio player below to listen to the audio interview in your browser, or skip down to the transcript if you prefer to read a lightly edited version of our talk. Either way, enjoy, and I’ll be back next month with another installment.

ND: Hi, everybody, and welcome to the Field of Schemes 20th anniversary interview series. Our guest for this inaugural episode is Roger Noll, who is an economics professor at Stanford and one of the definitive experts on sports economics, including coauthoring the book “Sports, Jobs, and Taxes,” which was one of the first in-depth investigations of the sports industry, including stadium deals and their financial implications. Hi, Roger, thanks for taking the time.

RN: Hi! My pleasure.

ND: So I remember back when Joanna Cagan and I were first working on the book, and we were first starting to do the research, we contacted you with questions like “Are cities being blackmailed into having to put up more money than it’s worth for the economic benefits they get back?” And your response was something like: “Yeah, it’s even worse than that, because there really aren’t any economic benefits to speak of!”

RN: That’s right.

ND: We’re still in the same situation, right? That’s remarkably unchanged. Is there anything we’ve learned in the last two decades to tell us otherwise or if there’s any exceptions or anything?

RN: Oh, I see a new dawn arising. Admittedly, this is inconsistent with the Raiders deal in Las Vegas, but in general in the last few years the resistance against huge public subsidies for stadiums has increased, and it’s much more difficult now for a team to get a large public subsidy than it was in the early 2000s. I think it definitely got worse after you talked to me last time. That sort of peaked in the early 2000s, and then since the Great Recession it’s been hard for a team to get a large public subsidy.

What you observe now is that the subsidy is more likely to become indirect, and more like conventional ways of attracting companies to locate in your area, like giving them the right to develop a whole bunch of land with tax increment financing of infrastructure, and things like that. So you give them tax breaks, but you don’t do it directly. It’s like the Los Angeles Rams facility and the L.A. area.

So I actually think that it’s hit its peak. And of course Las Vegas, which is an interesting one to talk about because it now looks so out there — it’s so different than any deal that’s been done in the last few years. The Las Vegas Raiders deal is now the exception, whereas in 2000 to 2005, it would have been the rule.

ND: Let’s step back for a second and first talk about the about how things have changed in the last few years. What do you attribute that to? That people finally read our books?

RN: Well, I don’t know how to apportion blame between you and me! But I think that notwithstanding the power of the press, the other thing that happened of course is that a bunch of cities got in deep financial trouble for the deals they made in the late ’90s and early 2000s. You know, Cincinnati, and the Phoenix area. So I think that that the reality came home that as the price of stadiums went up and up and up and up, and they became a significant component of a budget of a city or a county, that the failure to generate the incremental revenue that was promised in the initial plan caused serious financial harm that could easily be attributed to the stadium deal. And that has added a lot of a lot of heft to the arguments of the opponents.

So I do think that sports just overreached. They kept getting more and more and more money, a large part of which went to investing in much more elaborate facilities — things that had a lot more bells and whistles that went well beyond what you would actually need to have an economically viable business investment. And this caused financial hardship that then meant that the next round of requests for new stadiums, people did not respond as favorably as they had in the past.

ND: There’s a couple of other outliers, right? You’ve got the Texas Rangers, you’ve got the two stadiums in Atlanta, maybe you could throw the MLS stadium in D.C. in there. But you’re saying that those are becoming more the exceptions to the rule than the other way around?

RN: Yeah, what I’m saying is that the hit rate has gone down. It used to be the case that 75 percent of the time, teams would get a good deal. And now it’s down to like 25 percent of the time. You’re right, there’s still some bad deals out there. But there’s also a lot more deals where all the local government is providing is the land and the infrastructure, and the team is basically paying for the facility. And the way that it makes it work out financially is they get ancillary development rights in the area surrounding the stadium.

And this is actually a good thing for cities because it forces teams to do more like the Washington Bullets [ed. note: Wizards, obviously; Noll is old-school] facility in downtown D.C., where you actually try to develop a sports facility to be more integrated in the local economy as opposed to be walled off from it. In the late ’90s and early 2000s, the design of a sports facility was you’d have a facility and then you’d surround that with a parking lot, and you’d surround that with a freeway. So the probability that someone could actually escape and spend a dollar outside the facility was zero.

Now, if you’re going to be building an ancillary development that’s integrated with the sports facility, that enhances the value of the facility and the value of the surrounding businesses. Even though a smaller fraction of the net business may be going on inside the facility, the fact that it’s integrated with the greater community is actually beneficial. So that’s why the Los Angeles experiment with their new facility for the Rams and Chargers is especially interesting, because no one has ever successfully integrated a football facility into a local community before. And this will be a first if it works.

ND: I assume it’s a challenge because the football stadium is in use such a small amount of time. All sports venues, you have the problem that it’s just people flooding in and flooding back out a limited number of times a year. But football’s the worst for that, right?

RN: Football is exactly the worst. That’s why it is the singularly worst investment that a local community can make is to build a pro football stadium. But we’ll see what happens with the Rams. I don’t think there is any real solution to it, but you can make it better by having the facility be built in such a way that it has more uses, it is more modular. I don’t know whether they’re going to succeed in doing this in Los Angeles, because I don’t know enough about the plans — of what the inside of the facility is actually going to look like. But it’d be interesting to see if they experimented so that instead of, except for a few tractor pulls, being used ten times a year, it will be in fact use maybe 50 times a year. If they can do that, that’s a big benefit for the community.

ND: We’ve talked plenty of times over the past 20 years about the expectation that if the direct subsidies dried up, you would just see a lot fewer new stadiums being built. And that may be the case, but I certainly am surprised that you’ve got Los Angeles, you’ve got the new Warriors arena in San Francisco, you’ve got the Islanders talking about one in New York. MetLife. The new arena renovation that’s going on Seattle. It’s not unheard of for team owners or arena developers or people like AEG to say we actually will invest private money in sports venue. Is this a surprise to you? Or do you think this has to do somewhat with finding other ancillary ways of bringing in money that aren’t directly through trying to pay off the construction costs just by selling tickets.

RN: It’s a surprise that it’s gone as far as it has. It’s not a surprise that qualitatively this is the direction it’s taken. My expectation was that what they would do is simply make the stadiums less expensive — have fewer bells and whistles. But also, if you can recall, I remember talking to you about how Fenway Park was the past and it might be the future. The Boston Red Sox were forced into this by the lack of footprint. They had they didn’t have a lot of land. So they were forced to have the neighborhood be a beneficiary of Red Sox games as opposed to being a competitor.

So it doesn’t surprise me that there has been this attempt to have greater integration of the facility and the local community. And the dual use aspect of it that the Rams and chargers are playing in the same facility — again, 20 years ago, NFL teams thought it was anathema to share stadiums.We were in an area where sharing od stadiums was almost done — all of the shared stadiums had been essentially dispensed with, in all of sports, and we were moving to every team controlling its own facility. Again in football, especially, it makes no sense not to share stadiums multiteam team cities. And now we have two!

I think those things were foreseeable. But I think that the integration of the facility into multiuse, and with the rest of the community, the degree to which it is going to happen we underestimated it. And it’s probably going to happen more than we thought was possible 20 years ago.

ND: Which is much better from an urban planning standpoint, clearly. The one thing I wonder is whether it opens the door to — you know, we already have seen the shift away from direct subsidies, just going to the state legislature and asking for 300 million dollars in cash, to, well, give it to us in terms of tax breaks, give it to us in terms of free land, give it terms of other operating subsidies things down the road, because that’s easier to get to get passed. And we’re going to make this back by building other development around the stadium.

But then I wonder whether you’re at risk of seeing more things like the proposal in Anaheim that didn’t happen with the Angels — where it was, “Oh, we’ll pay for a whole new stadium! We just want development rights to the entire parking lot.” And the mayor there demanded a assessment and discovered that the value of the parking lot was worth more than the renovations they were doing. So I wonder whether there’s an opportunity for a different form of extracting public wealth or public opportunity cost or public value — just not through cash.

RN: Well, there’s always that danger. Tthat is to say that what form the subsidy takes, it’s still a subsidy. I was deriving joy from the fact that the actual magnitude of the subsidy has roughly been cut in half by now. I view that as a gain.

But you’re right, it’s still there. And it’s still an uneconomic investment. It still doesn’t have a good return on investment. So yeah, it would be better to have it be zero, but it’s certainly better to have it be two or three hundred million than to be 700 million. That’s sort of my take on it.

ND: I don’t mean to be the voice of doom. But as someone who has predicted that the tide was turning before and been completely wrong…

RN: Oh, I agree with you! And your skepticism is deserved. I agree that if these things turned out to be hugely successful, then I can imagine the magnitude of the subsidy coming back, so that any community benefits that arise from these multipurpose developments get completely captured by the owner of the sports team. That would be too bad. I can see that possibility happening. At least for now, that’s not where we are. And then if it turns out to be that this is the problem in the future, we can write another book!

ND: Let’s talk for a second about the Raiders, because I think you called that the worst deal you’ve ever seen. I think I’ve called it the worst deal I’ve ever seen.

RN: I think it was the worst deal we’ve ever seen!

ND: Talk a little bit about why it’s the worst, and then how on earth this happened. Because I think a lot of us thought, “Man, Mark Davis has painted himself into a corner. He has failed to get a chunk of the L.A. market. He is screwed.” And he walked away with 750 million dollars. How did this happen?

RN: I think he’s still screwed. In the sense that, yes, he got 750 million dollars of a two-billion-dollar facility. But if you read the financial plan, it is completely insane. They are expecting that something on the order of 40 percent of the people in attendance at those games are going to be people who drive up from L.A. They have 25,000 people per game getting to the game by walking from their hotels on the strip to the facility. And notwithstanding that in September in Las Vegas it’s 100 degrees, and the closest hotel on the strip is three quarters of a mile away.

So they’re expecting NFL fans — who are not exactly working class — to walk in 100-degree heat for somewhere between three quarters of a mile to three miles to get to a football game, and the reason that this is in the plan is they have no parking.

And they’re anticipating that the number of Las Vegas area people who will attend a game is 15,000 fewer than the number of season tickets they sold this year in Oakland.

ND: So, are we looking at a scenario where this could be a disaster for both the state of Nevada and the team? I would say that this was the first time but I guess we’ve had, I mean, arguably the Marlins stadium…

RN: This is the first.

ND: Well, the Marlins stadium was not a success for both sides, and the Glendale arena — there’s a few where everybody winds up unhappy. But this seems like it could potentially be not just everyone ending up unhappy, but it being a complete disaster for everyone.

RN: Exactly. When I said first, I meant the NFL. But you’re right, it looks like the Phoenix Coyotes. That’s exactly what it looks like. They’ve gotten themselves into a fix where their own forecasts of the local market demand for their product is substantially less than the local market demand for the product where they currently are — and they’re moving anyway.

ND: Is this just because Mark Davis check for 750 million dollars on it, and thought, “I can’t pass this up”?

RN: I don’t know anything. I’m trying to put a rational actor spin on it. My expectation is that the only way this makes logical sense is Mark Davis thinks he’s going to sell the team within the next couple of years.That maybe Sheldon Adelson or Steve Wynn or somebody like that will buy it and make it part of the Strip, basically.

I can’t see that this makes financial sense. Because when Adelson pulled his $650 million out of the deal, and that was replaced by a bank loan of 650 million, that sort of sealed the doom as far as I’m concerned for the Raiders as a business entity. Because they will collect a significant amount of money for naming rights and PSLs and all that. But he’s going to be hundreds of millions of dollars in debt to build this himself, with projected revenue substantially less than he has now.

So I think the only conceivable way out for him is that he will sell it to one of the hotel moguls in Las Vegas, and that that mogul would buy it because they think they can somehow integrate the marketing of their hotel chain. As you know the strip in Las Vegas, almost everything on their is owned by one of three companies. So if one of those companies buys the Raiders, they may think they’re getting a marketing advantage over their competitors for their casinos. So maybe that’s what he has in mind. But I can’t see the football team in and of itself being a viable enterprise in a stadium, even with its $750 million subsidy.

ND: This does seem to be one of the directions that things are heading, where you are seeing more stadiums being built as kind of loss leaders in these battles among big hotel owners or casino owners or arena operators, AEG and people like that. I can only understand this plan to spend a billion dollars on a new arena in Belmont Park in Queens as a turf war between Madison Square Garden and the owners of Barclay Center and things like that. Because as much as New York is a huge market, there’s a lot of arenas here right now. I can’t imagine it makes sense any other way.

RN: I think you’re absolutely right. And that is bearing in mind that an arena makes more sense than a stadium. Even so, New York now is well beyond full capacity for arenas, and building still another one makes no sense at all.

ND: Let’s talk for a second about shelf life. One thing that we have seen, even if the subsidy numbers are going down, is that 20 years ago we used to say when stadium is 30, 40 years old, the owner is going to want to start demanding a new one. Now it’s 20 years and you start looking ahead ot 20 years, so 10, 15 years down the road, it’s not unusual for an owner to say, “Well, you know, we’ve got to start talking about what comes next.” How long can this continue, this trend? I guess there’s two questions: One is what’s driving that? Is it just that they think they can get away with it? And the other is: Is there a limit? Can literally you start asking for a new stadium before the old one before the previous one is finished being built?

RN: This is one of the most interesting things going on in sports. And I think it has a two-part answer. The first part of it, of course, is you keep asking for more and more frequently because as sports become more and more popular in society, more closely integrated into the social fabric of a city, the greater the leverage the owner has to get more. So that’s the first part. The second part is the huge technological change has taken in the actual design and operation of sports facilities. As you know, the footprint of a contemporary stadium or arena is several times as big as the footprint of an arena or a stadium would have been built at the same seating capacity 25 years ago. And that’s because so much more stuff is being put inside the stadium there. It’s basically the shopping mall. So what’s gone on is the opportunity for ancillary revenues other than just selling tickets, and how that requires more space, and how that then leads to the demand for at least a serious renovation, if not a complete replacement of an older facility.

Now, both of these arguments hinge on the growth of the sports continuing. And I think for Major League Baseball and the NBA I don’t have any problem with that. I don’t see the end coming soon. For football, it’s not so clear. I mean, the NFL may well have peaked two years ago. The all-time historical peak of interest and willingness to pay for the NFL may well have peaked in 2015 or 2016.

And if that’s the case, then it’s going to come to an end. Because that takes away both the demand side for generating still more revenues, and it takes away the leverage of the owner to get more out of a local government. Meanwhile, back in the NBA, they are continuing to get bigger and better facilities with more and more opportunities for revenue generation inside. And they have actually a better prospect for integrating the facility into the local neighborhood for spillover benefits that they can capture.

So the NBA is different and it may well continue on the path it’s been on for the last few years. And likewise Major League Baseball. For the NFL and then to a lesser extent hockey I don’t see it continuing. And so I think that we may see a divergence here that the NBA and MLB sort of continue on the path, and the NHL and the NFL find it getting increasingly difficult to get new stadium deals, and the expected useful life will start to creep up again to the 30-year or 40-year range it was before.

ND: Do you have guess at what’s going to happen with MLS? Because it seems like they’re kind of in this weird cusp where they’re both building interest from a fairly low level — they’re going from being the fifth most popular sport to 4A — but legitimately growing in popularity. But at the same time, they are starting from a far distant beginning point, and so much of their business model seems to be based on, “Well, we’re just going to keep selling more expansion franchises and hope that that keeps” — right?

RN: I’ve had to spend a lot of my time in the last couple of months explaining precisely why the MLS is not a Ponzi scheme, but you might think so.

No, you’re absolutely right that the profitability of the original set of franchises in MLS is completely dependent upon expansion. It is true they have secured some television. They have increased their popularity. But it’s nowhere near enough to justify the prices of the franchises and the costs of the stadiums. And obviously expansion can’t go on forever. Plus, this additional problem is they are a sport that depends upon a vibrant minor league system.Every nation on earth that has good soccer, or football, has multiple divisions. MLS has taken this policy attitude that it’s going to try to mimic baseball where the MLS teams control the minor leagues. And that just raises their costs again. It doesn’t create a viable community-based independent demand like we see for second and third division clubs in Europe. And without promotion and relegation, you don’t have this positive prospect of teams going up and down so occasionally they get to be major league teams.

So I don’t see the business model of MLS justifying the amount of expansion that’s currently going on and the expenditures on new facilities. So I think if we move out 10 years, what do you think is going to happen, I think MLS has a good chance of having happen to it what happened to the North American Soccer League in the 1980s when they did the same thing: They got overexuberant and overexpanded.

ND: Now you’re the one who’s even more pessimistic than me. I’m not saying you’re wrong! But that’s the nightmare scenario that everybody is afraid of.

So I’m sure you get this question all the time, because I certainly do, which is people saying so what’s a good deal? What is a reasonable involvement that governments should have? Whether it’s what’s an example of a specific stadium that’s good, or how do you determine what a price point is. Because don’t think you or I ever say—

RN: Never should do it.

ND: Never should do anything — nobody should ever build stadiums, we should just shut down all sports and make them go play in some other country. And there obviously is some benefit to having a team, to having a new stadiums, to all these things, even if it’s nowhere near what the owners and their boosters claim. So what answer do you give to that, in terms of what makes sense for governments to do — or what’s a way for governments to figure out what they should do.

RN: I actually think there is a positive case to be made for government involvement in the provision of localized sports facilities in the same way that they provide libraries and parks and symphony orchestras and ballets — that this is part of the culture of a city. And if government is honest up front and says, “We’re not doing this because we’re all going to get rich. We’re doing it because we want this to be a part of our community, want it to be part of the cultural environment of the community in which we live,” that’s fine. Then where does that lead you? It leads you in actually the direction things have been going in the last few years, with a few exceptions, which is the integration of the facilities into the local community, giving responsibility for the design of the investment and the cost of the investment in the facility itself to the sports owner. If you’re going to subsidize it, you can give them the land and give them the infrastructure, but you don’t want to be paying directly for the bells and whistles. You want the decision about bells and whistles to be done by the team itself so that they only spend money on things for which there is some purpose other than being a monument to the owner. If, like in the case of Jerry Jones in Texas, for example, he’s willing to pay for monuments to himself — and that’s okay, I don’t have any objection to that — but the citizens of the community don’t have to build monuments. They don’t have to build his pyramids — he can build them himself.

And so I think that approach where you use things like giving away the land and the infrastructure and giving them some property tax breaks, but not paying for the stadium itself and not committing yourself to underwrite the operating revenues of that facility, subsidize the team and its operations, that’s the way to go. And if you present it that way — yes, we’re giving them something, but you decide as a citizen whether to vote for it on the basis of whether you’re willing to pay to have a local team be part of our community — that’s the right way to run the politics. My objection I think, and pretty much yours too, has always been don’t try to sell us snake oil. Don’t try to tell us we’re all going to get rich when we’re not.

ND: I guess the question then is how do you determine what the value is right of the team and of a stadium and things like that to fans and to taxpayers. Because clearly there is a value. But if you’re going up there and you’re saying. “Oh, this is not could be an economic benefit, we’re just doing this as a community asset,” unless you’re having some sort of referendum about it, you can still just go through and ask whatever you want, and just say, “Well, we’re being upfront about it now: We’re just we’re just doing this because we think it’s cool.”

RN: Most cities do not have a referendum every time they build a park. As long as the politics of it is discussed openly and the facts are presented in an objective fashion then I’m not so much worried. I mean, you can get corrupt situations where essentially a team might bribe a city council to give it a subsidy. But I don’t think that’s been the fundamental problem historically. I think the fundamental problem historically has been that the politics of large stadium subsidies dictated making the economic argument that somehow this was going to make all the property in the city more valuable.

Now we know from experiences in the ’90s and 2000s that it’s not true. We have lots of data now to say it’s not true. So I think it’s fairly easy to beat off that argument now, compared to what it was 20 to 30 years ago. And if people stop making that argument and local governments continue to decide they want to help teams and keep them, and it’s part of the normal political discourse of the community, I wouldn’t be terribly upset if indeed what is the common way to deal with it now becomes the norm. I would be upset obviously if the profitability argument came back and cities started just giving straight cash subsidies for stadium construction like the Las Vegas deal. I think that that would be a bad deal.

ND: But you’re you’re actually somewhat hopeful that things are heading in a direction that we may not be having the same conversation in another 20 years.

RN: I think that’s right. I mean I would say cautious optimism is the exact right way to put it.

ND: I guess I can’t hold you to that if you have a qualifier there. But I hope you’re right.

RN: I do too!