April 28, 2006
MN Senate: Let a thousand stadiums bloom
The Minnesota Twins stadium bill abruptly ran into trouble in the state senate last night, with the entry into the debate of one of the only forces powerful enough to sway a legislative body: another sports franchise. Senate tax committee chair Larry Pogemiller, chief senate sponsor of the Twins' $373 million sales-tax subsidy bill, and fellow committee member Steve Kelley threw things into disarray by instead proposing a different funding scheme that would impose a 0.5% sales-tax hike in all seven counties around the Twin Cities - with money going to fund new stadiums for the Twins, the Vikings, and the University of Minnesota football team, along with regional transit projects.
If you're wondering why Twins backers would risk grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory, look no further than the Vikings, who were apparently desperate not to miss out on the Minnesota legislature's moment of stadium largesse. "Splitting the Twins' bill and the Vikings' bill kills the Vikings' bill and kills the Vikings' chances this session," Vikings VP Lester Bagley told the tax committee today.
In addition to inspiring the most strained sports-related article lede ever, the prospect of a new tax plan put Twins execs and their backers on edge. Twins president Jerry Bell stold the committee aid that while the team isn't opposed to a Vikings stadium, "you might understand a little bit of nervousness on our part." Meanwhile, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, on his weekly radio show, warned against inserting "poison pill amendments or general tax increases that they know aren't going to be acceptable to me or to many legislators."
The logic of pumping close to a billion dollars in tax revenue into a pair of sports stadiums aside, replacing a one-county tax with a seven-county one is actually a bad idea from an economic perspective, since the "substitution effect" is more acute the wider the area you look at. In other words, while Hennepin County might see a mild economic gain from fans visiting from elsewhere in the state for Twins games (likewise Anoka County for Vikings games), the economic impact across the entire metro area is likely to be minimal, since most fans are from one of those seven counties, and would already be spending their money there anyway. But then, on these grounds, there's really no reason for state to want a Hennepin County tax, either, since if more people drive into Minneapolis for Twins games, it will only end up cannibalizing spending from elsewhere in the state.
Normally I'd make a snide remark here about all this talk of "substitution effects" being beyond the comprehension of elected officials - except that someone who was watching today's hearings just wrote in to inform me that during today's committee debate, state senator Warren Limmer cited me as a source on why stadiums bring limited economic benefits. Only problem is, I haven't been able to find out whether he was using my writing to support an argument for or against a multi-county tax (his district is within Hennepin County). Sen. Limmer's office, if you're reading this, you know where to reach me if you want more on the specifics of stadium economic impact - I bet Basic Books would even be happy to Fed-Ex over a copy of Baseball Between the Numbers.
to the senate: if the twins don't get a new stadium this year they are gone 2 years from now at the most so choose wisely. This vote is not about a new stadium it's about wether or not we want a pro baseball team bringing millions of dollars into the states economy the bottom line is if you don't vote yes goodbye twins and i personally don't think many people will be happy about that.
Posted by: jon on April 28, 2006 10:45 PM
Jon:
Where are the Twins going to go? Other than Montreal there isn't a major league ready park available. Further, any city they'd try to relocate to would be a huge step down in T.V. market size.
I'm willing to bet that if by some chance the Twins did leave it'd become the number one relocation hotspot/threat in MLB with Florida, Oakland, and down the road Kansas City (since they got a nice welfare package from Missouri) all taking a hard look at trying to move there. The closest team to there is Milwaukee while the Twins draw from the Dakotas, and parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Canada.
Best Regards
John
Posted by: John Brattain on April 29, 2006 05:32 PM
