August 01, 2011

As Islanders vote looms, finance board remains wild card

It's New York Islanders arena vote day in Nassau County, and ... there really isn't much to be added to what's been said already. Still, papers have gotta be published, so there's plenty of ink spilled today on the plan:

• The Times has a long article that will be of interest to anyone who knows absolutely nothing about the arena deal and needs a primer. Key quote: "'It's a Catch-22,' [retired Nassau resident Bob Orosz] said. 'If it's passed, our taxes are going to go up. If it fails, our taxes are going to go up.'"
• The Daily News has another editorial dissing the plan, its second in two weeks, which seems like a lot for a project that doesn't even affect most of the News' readers. Key quote: "Voters who care about fiscal sanity should go to the polls - and terminate the plan with extreme prejudice."
• Newsday runs down the basics of the plan and what happens next. Key quote: "If the referendum is approved, it would next go before the 19-member Nassau County Legislature which would require a supermajority of 13 members, including at least two Democrats, to guarantee passage. NIFA also must approve the lease agreement and bonding."
• The Wall Street Journal runs down the basics of the vote as well, with an extra helping of quotes from arena opponents. Key quote: "William Biamonte, the Democratic Commissioner of the Nassau Board of Elections, said voter turnout would likely be less than 10%, compared with up to 70% for a presidential election. 'Whatever the result, we won't be able to read any type of public intent from it,' Mr. Biamonte said."
• One of the more in-depth articles on the Islanders plan, weirdly, is in the Montreal Gazette, where columnist Pat Hickey crunches the numbers and finds them wanting. Key quote: "The Islanders have tried to make the picture rosier by projecting $229 million in annual revenue for the new building. ... Consider these numbers: If the Islanders, who had the lowest attendance in the league last season at 11,059 per game, sell out all 41 games in a 17,500-seat arena with an average ticket price of $65 — which would be among the highest in the NHL — and every fan spent another $50 a game on beer, hotdogs and souvenirs, the total revenue would be a mere $82 million. It would take a lot of concerts and other events to make up the difference in the Islanders' projections."

The last poll, taken in mid-July, found that registered Nassau County voters opposed the plan, 51-36% — but as Biamonte noted, turnout is expected to be so low that this will be more a referendum on who's motivated to go to the polls than on what county voters actually think.

The more interesting wild card could be NIFA, which was appointed to oversee the near-bankrupt county's finances last winter, and which has already said it will take a hard look at the arena numbers before approving any deal. NIFA already rejected the county's overall budget last month, so clearly it's not afraid to make some tough calls. So however the vote goes today, the Islanders saga is far from over.