Today’s entry in straight-lines-masquerading-as-newspaper-headlines comes courtesy of the L.A. Daily News:
Lawsuit seeks to slow proposed NFL stadium in downtown Los Angeles
Slow it down? If it were going any slower, it’d be going backwards!
In any case, the Play Fair at Farmers Field Coalition, a group of environmentalist and downtown L.A. community groups, is suing to overturn the get-out-of-lawsuits-free card that the state legislature approved for AEG last September, saying it violates the California constitution. Why now? According to the Daily News:
Asked why the coalition waited until now to prepare the lawsuit, Stormer said the group wanted to make sure the stadium was actually going forward.
Everybody’s a comedian…
I predict that they will be exactly as successful as Santa Clara Plays Fair.
This stadium is going up and some NFL team is going to be in it. Let’s use the rest of the thread to speculate on which team.
I say an emerging long shot may be the Dolphins. They own their stadium so (I think) there are no lease issues, and they are faced with a choice between a several hundred million dollar renovation + minimal increase in franchise value vs. giving away a piece of a franchise that will see a massive value spike if it’s the only team in downtown L.A.
How could Santa Clara Plays Fair be successful when they were outspent by an opposition group that was 99% funded by the San Francisco 49ers? In fact, the 49ers spent over $5 million convincing starstruck Santa Clara voters to pass a ballot measure which places the city at risk for over 90% of the stadium’s $1.2 billion costs. When the stadium doesn’t generate significant revenues to pay its yearly costs, taxpayers will be called upon to bail out the stadium. It happens that way all the time. Given the 49ers aren’t releasing any data regarding seat license sales, or a title sponsor for the stadium has yet to surface, its safe to assume things aren’t going well in regards to raising much needed money.
As for the proposed downtown NFL stadium at LA Live, good luck with that. There has yet to be a commitment from any NFL team. However, if there is one, I predict the Raiders will return to Los Angeles. They still have a loyal SoCal following and are a better fit for the area. Besides, Oakland does not have the money to build them a new stadium and no way will the Raiders share a stadium with the 49ers.
The stadium may go up, and a team may play in it, but that’s just as due to the incredible ineptitude of the NFL in overexpanding and putting teams in locations (Carolina, Jacksonville) where they were never likely to succeed. Add in teams in corporate-poor locations like Tampa and you have lots of teams that don’t have the tools to do well on their own.
What’s remarkable about the LA debate is how low-key it is. While the NFL has seemed to convince other cities that 1) its the Most Important Thing in the World and 2) any city that misses out on NFL football is on the way to being like ancient Carthage, these arguments have largely fallen flat in LA and people frankly don’t seem to care. With no team in nearly 20 years, it has been proven that life goes on.
Exactly! The 49ers targeted Santa Clara after realizing San Francisco was not going to spend $1 billion building something that gets used less than 15 times per year.
The NFL needs Los Angeles more than that city needs the NFL. Having a team in LA will bring more television revenues for the league. I agree that most people in SoCal don’t care if there is or isn’t a team in LA. It would just be another activity. There are far too many things to do in SoCal and football is not really a focus sport for many who live there. However, its likely an NFL stadium in LA will do better because of the large Latino soccer loving base. But, I doubt they can schedule so many soccer related events to make it profitable.
Alright, so one Raiders vote from santaclarawillbebroke and a half-vote each for Carolina and Jacksonville from Gdub.
Who else has a guess on which team relocates? We can turn FoS into an ESPN comment board yet!
I say the Raiders and Rams are the 2 most likely targets- Go ‘9ers- cant wait for opening day in SC!!
Of course SanJoseA’s is happily waiting for the first 49ers game in Santa Clara. He doesn’t live in my city and won’t have to pay for the stadium.
…but I did buy season tix—and I am not whining about it….
Ben’s thought on the Dolphins is astute…plus, they have a widespread national fanbase, and the Miami area is looking pretty poor attendance wise(most of the fans come from the suburbs).
I’m thinking Raiders to LA, Jacksonville to London (too much money, lease in Jax can get bought off).
I really don’t get the “move two teams at once” concept. I could see if they played in separate stadiums, or if one team was traditional and a newcomer, but two at once seems like over saturating the market.
I’m sticking with “none of the above,” at least not for the next several years. Market size simply isn’t enough of a value enhancer in the NFL to make it worthwhile to give up the kind of equity that AEG is asking for.
If this involved a league with significant local cable revenues, maybe. But it’s not.
If AEG gets past their hurdles. Actually have a comprehensive plan in hand instead of the old discounted current market deal they wanted. I think they could get it done. I have felt that AEG is really been working with the NFL closely and unfortunately for them the NFL wants money and lots of it.
2nd the industry site has been the quiet sleeper but we know the NFL will pit one vs another. I remeber 1999 very clearly. So until I see some construction, a team getting off a plane, maybe a first kick off I will beleive it. It has been nearly 20 years and I have just followed my team on my TV.
I think the Rams make sense but the NFL is so unpredictable any guess is is good as the next unless it is a legacy team, or a team with a strong lease. Those will not suffice.
sanjoseA’s: So, you’re one purchaser of season tickets. That leaves the Stadium Authority how many short of reaching its goal? Obviously, if BSL & season ticket sales were going so well, they would have announced it. Frankly, I don’t believe those revenue components are going so well.
As I stated, you don’t live in Santa Clara. You won’t have to worry about it when the stadium loses money and people like myself are asked to help pay for those losses.
Neil, Neil, Neil. Always being a wet blanket on our thread hijacking. I’ll put you down as a Chargers vote.
Looks like the Rams are pulling ahead. Glad to have a partial Dolphins vote along with me as well.
On Santa Clara, that stadium will do fine. I’m guessing that the Pac 12 championship will be up there before long and I’d think that a Labor Day Pac 12 vs. SEC/Big 12 matchup would work, too. Throw in a Super Bowl, maybe a WrestleMania and some Google Drive drag races and it may even exceed revenue projections.
Ben has a future at comedy central. He wouldn’t be so sanguine if he actually had to live here. A couple of college football games (in an area that really isn’t very college football mad) isn’t going to pay the bills.
Why would wrestle mania need a NFL stadium? A SB may make money for the hotels and car rental places but end up costing the city money.
The fact is no one, not a single person, has been able to come up with a plausible list of alternative events where the city could actually make money (actually the revenues from any “good stuff” would have to be split 50-50% with the 49ers).
There absolute best case scenario for the city is that we sort of break even.
Sorry if Ben thinks the thread was hijacked, but he’s the one who took the gratuitous shot at SCPF (who weren’t successful, but will be proved right in time).
Ben,
I don’t think that the Dolphins will ever leave the Miami area. If any team in the NFL from Florida ever relocates, it will be the Jaguars. Even then I don’t think that the Jaguars will move because they have a long term lease with the City of Jacksonville and their owner just spent money on upgrading the stadium speakers this year and money will be spent on new scoreboards for next season. My guesses as far as which team(s) move to Los Angeles would be the Rams and/or Raiders. I cannot see teams relocating (or expansion for that matter) to London, Toronto, Mexico City, etc.
The Dolphins have announced they are moving to L.A. at the end of 2013.
Thanks, Bizarro Neil, for that visit from an alternate reality.
The Miami Dolphins can build a new retractable roof stadium at the old Miami Arena stie. Assuming the site is still available and not developed.
You guys don’t seem to understand that teams can’t move/build a new stadium without G4 funds, and that requires NFL approval. The Raiders will never get G4 funding for LA as long as the Davis family owns the team.
If the Rams get out of their lease it will be the Chargers and Rams to share a stadium. 2 teams sharing a stadium is the only way anything gets done in LA.