While the endgame of the coronavirus pandemic remains incredibly unclear — from when anything resembling normal life to resume to who will get bailed out how — one thing that seems certain is that anyone with an agenda is spending their time in lockdown figuring out how they can use this catastrophe to their own ends. So, for example, you have an unnamed Boston Red Sox exec telling Peter Gammons this week that it could take until 2023 to rebuild revenues, and so baseball needs to “determine where that takes free agency, arbitration, draft and other player compensations,” a pretty clear shot across the bow of the players’ union that “but our ticket sales!” is going to be a big negotiating point in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations.
If that’s just public saber-rattling with the union, though, it looks like MLB may have exploited the pandemic to win an actual victory over another adversary: According to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, who first broke the story last fall that MLB was looking to eliminate 42 existing minor-league franchises, the minor leagues are expected to agree to the plan as soon as today, because the shutdown of the 2020 season has left them so desperate for survival that they’ll take any port in a storm:
The world has changed dramatically over the past six months, especially now that the coronavirus pandemic has halted sports. When MLB and MiLB negotiators convene on a teleconference on Wednesday, multiple sources with knowledge of the negotiations say MiLB will indicate that it agrees to 120 affiliated teams in a new PBA…
If both sides agree, it would mean as many as 42 current minor league teams would be lopped off by eliminating short-season and Rookie ball. Two independent league teams, the St. Paul Saints and Sugar Land Skeeters, would be added to affiliated ball. The two sides are working on a potential deal to ensure the majority of those 42 markets would have still have baseball with ties to MLB in a system that has long-term viability.
What that last bit means about “the majority of markets” having “baseball with ties to MLB” is still not entirely clear: Cooper writes that “those cities’ teams will not be fielding draftees and signees of the MLB club,” which is pretty much entirely what minor-league affiliation means, so who knows whether they’d just be getting some cash from MLB or getting to wear hats with the MLB logo on it or what. The Dream League idea — let all the players who don’t make the shrunken minors go play in independent ball with MLB footing some bills and hope that doesn’t go bankrupt immediately — seems not to be the plan since MiLB leaders still think it would crash and burn immediately, but maybe they’ll just announce today that they’ve agreed to minor-league contraction while what happens to former minor-league cities is relegated to “see Appendix A (not attached).”
And make no mistake, what happens to minor-league cities is going to be hugely important for the future not only of fans in those cities, but for how the entire minor-league ecosystem — and the minor-league stadium-grubbing ecosystem — works in the future. If one of the advantages of being a minor-league baseball owner seeking a new stadium is that there are plenty of potential minor-league cities you can threaten to move to, a disadvantage is that there are so many minor-league teams that it’s always possible for a city to lure a new one to take the old one’s place. (In European sports, it’s worth noting, move threats are almost unheard of, partly because there’s no restriction on just starting a new team and letting it try to work its way up the promotion ladder toward the top tiers.) Slashing the number of minor-league teams would dramatically shift team owners’ leverage, since you’d have a cartel controlling a more limited number of franchises deciding where to place them, much like the major leagues operate right now.
Now, it’s possible this agreement could still fall apart, or that Cooper’s sources are wrong: MiLB issued a statement yesterday that news reports of 42 teams’ imminent demise were “largely inaccurate” and “there have been no agreements on contraction or any other issues,” though it’s worth noting that there’s a big difference between “largely inaccurate” and “entirely inaccurate.”
But it looks at least like the current crisis has led to a dramatic shift in power between MLB (which has the cash reserves to weather even a full-year shutdown) and MiLB (which emphatically does not, and is even less likely to see games resume in 2020), and MLB is set to exploit it for all it’s worth. This will be bad for minor-league fans who will lose their teams, and bad for minor-league cities that will face even more shakedowns if they want to keep their teams in the future, but it will be good for MLB owners’ control of their industry. And if there’s one thing clear about historical crises of all kinds, it’s that they’re a great time to drive the competition out of business.
One team that will be really hurt will be the Yankees: Their affiliates in Staten Island and Charleston will be eliminated. Pulaski will be safe because it is a modern ballpark and led the league in attendance. But guess what? It is not just happening in MILB. LigaMX ( Mexican Soccer) is using Coronavirus as an excuse to change things.They froze team advances and demotions for five years. There is talk of a merger with MLS. Why? The financial structure of MLS is better,( meaning investment and facilities) but LigaMX is much more popular ( even in the US). Anyone want to bet that if such a merger happened, the lower teams ( like Vera Cruz) would be eliminated or turned into minor league teams?
They announced the pro/rel ban in LigaMx this week, but it’s been in the works since at least June or last year if not earlier. It’s had only been a token pro/rel anyway since often a team that got demoted would buy the license of the team that got promoted and swap all the players.
I do not see a scenario, anytime soon, where MLS will merge with Liga MX.
From a competition standpoint Liga MX will pummel MLS teams and that will not be very exciting from a US sports fan’s perspective.
But the MLS cities with large Mexican and Mexican-American populations will certain come out and watch their personal “home” teams play versus MLS opponents.
In the future, if there remains a scenario where the virus pandemic is still strategically impacting MLS’ viability, where MLS is about to fold unless is takes drastic measures then maybe it could happen.
I’ve no doubt that MLB (read: owners) do want to use their leverage to solidify/expand their cartel’s control.
But there’s another side to this also. MLB will obviously keep the strongest of the MiLB markets and abandon the (41… after all, MiLB did say that the report of 42 was largely inaccurate) others.
This makes it much harder for independent leagues to incorporate the now empty markets into their existing leagues. It does not, however, make it impossible. Typically, independent leagues do not have their pick of locations… if the location was a good one, chances are it already had an affiliated club in or near it. Despite MLB’s intentions, at least a few of these newly abandoned locations will be viable for independent leagues to expand or relocate franchises to.
Unaffiliated minor league ball has it’s own challenges. You can’t market the game as “come see tomorrow’s stars today”, even though in most cases that was rarely ever true. You don’t get ‘help’ from a multibillion dollar monopoly in exchange for surrendering much of the control an owner would usually have over his/her business.
But it is not impossible. It’s a labour of love and many teams will remain in the “lose money most years but occasionally manage to break even” category. There are owners (and more importantly fans) out there who are very much fed up with the actions and behaviours of sports cartels.
Maybe it’s time we all put our money where our mouths are.
I know one franchise that will bite the dust: The Staten Island Yankees. Not only do you have the Yankees and Mets in the City, but the more successful Brooklyn Cyclones. The land that the Stadium is sitting on is quite valuable as well.
Maybe it’s a play to get NYCFC a home somewhere in the 5 Boroughs and out of Yankee Stadium.
I know that area quite well. Staten Island will not be the new home of NYCFC. Why? The difficulty of getting people to games. Unless you are from Staten Island, the only options are driving and the Staten Island Ferry. At least The Bronx has better public transportation options ( D and 4 trains and Metro North). I have long believed the bast spot is Aqueduct Race Track ( Ozone Park). Why? 1: It is zoned commercial. 2: There is the A Train for people wanting to go to games. 3: It would offer the least amount of disruptions for the local community. 4: With the changes coming to Belmont Park ( including winterizing the track), NY State ( if they choose) can finally shut down the “Big A” and move most racing to Belmont ( the exception being August in Saratoga).
Interesting to see my ‘local’ Sugarland Skeeters getting “promoted” to affiliated baseball.
I live in Houston and Sugarland is essentially a suburb. I’ve never seen a Skeeter’s game, but I did see one of the first ever Major League Rugby pre-season matches there at that ballpark a few years ago. There were 4,000 folks in freezing weather which I thought was a great sign for the potential success of professional rugby in our town and for the league. Too bad this health crisis may kill MLR as it was taking off.
I wonder what at what level and in what league the Sugarland team will be affiliated. There are no A ball leagues around here. Texas League expansion? Not sure the Astros (aka cheatin’ mo’fos) would be too keen on that since it would siphon off $$$.
I was planning to take my 2 girls to see a Skeeters game this summer since it is so much more accessible and cost effective than the Astros.
My girls and I actually support the Bellingham Belles of the West Coast League (collegiate summer league) up in Washington state where we visit their grandmother every year in the summertime. Hope the Belle’s make it through financially for future years…since their county health department has already “recommended” cancelling all summertime events which effectively ends their season.
I’m not sure it’ll give minor league teams more leverage, since one of the goals of contraction is to reduce the geographic footprint for the major league club’s farm system and have the AA and AAA affiliates close by for a call-up. Especially for the MLB clubs that are more far-flung and/or lack other cities nearby, it seems awfully hard to pull the relocation threat if it’d mean your minor leaguers are farther away. some teams like the A’s and Mets have expressed how much they hated it when their AAA affiliates were across the country. Would be cutting off the nose to spite the face at that point.
If you know the history of the Scranton Wilkes-Barre RailRiders you know the team has the leverage (especially because the Yankees own half of the club), They were able to get a new stadium built because of the threat of franchise relocation. Besides that, MLB actually controls the Appalachian League, and can shut it down, with 6 months notification. Which is why most teams there will be eliminated. Only Pulaski ( with the best attendance and most modern stadium is expected to survive).