So this happened:
Guess I can let my domain registration for https://t.co/m8L2K91iYl lapse now. https://t.co/pmq4A5WCHf
— Field of Schemes (@fieldofschemes) January 20, 2022
For those who don’t want to click through multiple tweets, the Tampa Bay Times reported today that MLB has “killed” Rays owner Stuart Sternberg’s split-city plan for Tampa Bay and Montreal, telling Sternberg on Tuesday that the league’s executive council had rejected the idea. The decision “stunned team officials,” per the Times, who “were expecting approval to proceed with efforts to get open-air stadiums built in both markets.”
That’s an awfully generous interpretation of a proposal that always seemed more like a bluff than a serious business plan. But, sure, it is surprising that MLB actually voted against a shared Tampa Bay-Montreal team — and then presumably leaked to the press that it had done so — if only because this reduces Sternberg’s leverage in trying to get stadiums built in both markets, even if only to see which one results in more taxpayer cash and then pick that one. Did Sternberg’s fellow owners think he was drinking his own Kool-Aid and might actually be getting serious about his harebrained scheme? Do they just hate him so much that they don’t care about helping his leverage gambit? Is Rob Manfred even worse at his job as MLB’s official extortionist than we thought? So many questions!
For some more non-answers, let’s go to Sternberg’s press conference, which was held on Zoom and is archived on Facebook, and will be remembered for such highlights as:
- Someone screen-named “Christina” who kept open-mic-bombing Sternberg’s talk, with a (male) voice shouting, “What is going on with your volume!?” and “Where in the fuck is the volume?!”, before finally muting and then retreating to the text chat function, where they chimed in with such observations as “You lie Stu!” and “Liar!!!!!”
- Sternberg reading from a teleprompter with an expression that can only be described as “heavily medicated,” explaining that “today’s news is not as heartening as a couple of months ago” and “flat-out deflating,” and predicting that teams building multiple stadiums in multiple cities will ultimately be “accepted in all of professional sports.”
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times asking Sternberg what it would take for a full-time stadium to work in the Tampa Bay area when he previously said it was impossible, and Sternberg replying, “We’re certainly going to be exploring things in the Tampa Bay region” and “the idea that it wouldn’t work completely is not what our approach has been,” which, ahem:
- Sternberg telling two Montreal reporters, “I am gonna miss the accents, I tell you.”
- Sternberg insisting that he would love nothing more than to stay at Tropicana Field, but “for some reason” attendance is low there and so, sure, new stadium, that’ll fix everything!
- Asked if he felt “betrayed” by his fellow MLB owners, Sternberg answering: “That’s a word.”
Clearly everyone is still absorbing this news, Christina included. The basics of Sternberg’s plan for the Rays haven’t changed much — create leverage by playing cities off against each other — but his preferred method has now been ruled off-limits by his own corporate partners for reasons that are as yet unclear. In the grand scheme of things this turn of events may not be entirely surprising if you’ve been paying attention, but if you claim to have called “forced to back down from trying to play in two countries at once while being heckled in Zoom chat” in advance, you’re a LIAR!!!!!.
Interesting development.
It’s tempting for me to think that MLB looked at this objectively (possibly even hired a professional consultant to look at the plan and evaluate whether there is ANY possibility of it happening at all, or whether the Rays might generate more or less money overall by splitting their games between two home markets) before rejecting it.
But doing the legwork is not something MLB normally does… I mean they haven’t even struck a blue ribbon panel yet (well, not for this team… how’s the A’s BRP coming along with it’s interim report????)
It’s unquestionably the right call as the plan was dumber than (insert your favourite owner’s name here. I know who mine is.)
But it is still interesting that they chose this time to do it. Do they know something (IE: that it was possible/likely that neither city would cough up; or that one or both had privately refused to fund anything for ‘half a team etc).
Mr. Sternberg is far wealthy than I am, so I’m certainly not criticizing him for lack of wealth. However, he is not really of the kind of wealth that the owner’s club prefers… what with the Rays being most of his holdings as far as the Forbes rankings suggest.
Maybe they are tiring of him. Or maybe they think there’s a window for a stadium in Tampa or Montreal that will close. Or maybe some owners are hungry for expansion cash all of a sudden what with covid and the impending end of professional baseball as we know it (IE: lockout/strike).
Hard to say… but one thing we do now know is that they felt there was a reason to stop this madness right now as opposed to next summer or next winter. That in itself is interesting to me.
Honestly, I think relocation (preferably via sale) is a much better option for the Rays at this point. Sternberg won’t build economical (practically every single stadium concept is garish and would require expensive upkeep), clearly wants the stadium funded exclusively through taxpayer support, and the land is likely not going to open up in a favorable part of the region for fans to flock to a team that will just trade away talent the instant their value increases.
As we all know, one city’s willingness to wipe their hands off of a bad deal is another city’s embrace of silliness.
Relocation to where, though?
Nashville or Montreal with Charlotte as the wild card
If St. Petersburg is too small, Nashville isn’t going to help.
Montreal is a possibility in terms of market size, but there’s still the question of who would pay for a stadium. Quebec’s premier seems eager to chip in, but even $300 million in tax kickbacks isn’t likely to get it done on its own.
Montreal were ready to build a stadium, it would have happened by now and the team would just move there. It could happen, but it’s not at all clear who would pay for it or if Canada is ever really going to care about baseball again.
If Sternberg – or anyone – could squeeze a stadium out of Charlotte or Nashville, Sternberg would have been threatening to split the Rays with one of them instead of Montreal.
So it would require Sternberg to give up – or somehow lose the team as he’s clearly losing a grip on reality* – and sell the team to a billionaire that would rather try in a different market than in Tampa.
* I don’t want to mock the mentally ill. I really think there may be something off about Sternberg. Or maybe it’s just the same out-of-touch-ness of all billionaires.
There is no interest from Public Officials in Nashville or Charlotte. MLB is saying Stu wanna do Tampa, do Tampa else we need to get these other cities interested
Orlando is a fast growing area. Many transplants from other MLB cities. Since MLB only cares about backsides in seats instead of fan loyalty, people like myself would purchase tickets when my team came to town. If MLB knew how to do marketing, they don’t, you could possible build a fan base.
Since I was use to traveling from Central Jersey to Shea, traveling from Tampa/St Pete to Orlando would be no different. I4 is just like like the BQE or the Grand Central at peak. You would have the Rays fans from the west coast, gain fans from Central Florida, and gain fans from Daytona/Palm Coast down through the Space Coast.
Of course there is that pesky issue that the Rays want someone else to pay for the ballpark and/or if Florida can really support MLB.
At Orlando’s current rates of growth — about 40,000 people a year — while Tampa Bay by comparison is growing about 40,000 people a year, Orlando is set to be as big as Tampa Bay by … I think you can do the math yourself on this one.
Holy macaroni…Batman!
Sigh, guess I will cancel my Tampontreal
T Shirt order now…..
NO!!!!! Buy out the store!!!!
Think of the collector value in 35 years. it would be like the 1943 tin penny.
And at some point in 2057, you just know the Rays – having relocated to Monterey by then – will be keen to use the Tamponterreal jerseys as their retro look.
But you didn’t hear any of this from me, obviously.
I never saw your post…..
I wanted to keep pulling for the Tampontral Ex-Rays! I’ve been rooting for Tampontreal ALL MY LIFE!
Tampa Bay Mariners t-shirts from back in the 90s are not exactly collector’s items, so don’t go pressing BUY just yet.
This was the dumbest idea in the history of ever, and the only thing more stunning is that MLB didn’t string it out as long as humanly possible.
Neil’s right: okay, move, but where? I guess market size or no, good idea or no, they will take whatever deal they can get.
Orlando, Charlotte, San Antonio and Portland are all good-sized metro areas. No idea if there is any appetite there for public money to lure a team, but they might be better than Nashville.
The Rays would be DOA if they ever moved to Orlando, especially if that move involves plopping up a stadium in Disney instead of where people actually around here (aka literally any location to the north and east of Disney). If anything, they could stand to lose more fans in Tampa Bay than they could ever hope to create in Orlando, never mind the rest of the state.
There are so many factors going against any MLB team prospering in this town that it’s really not worth any team’s time to explore the scene here, even one that plays just a straight shot down the interstate.
Is Puerto Rico a possibility?
San Juan has roughly the population of Tulsa, Oklahoma, and the per-capita income of Jackson, Mississippi.
Nielsen market sizes in TV homes:
Tampa-St. Pete 2,035,250
Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn 1,731,360
Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto 1,459,260
Portland,OR 1,315,470
Charlotte 1,290,660
Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle) 1,237,230
Indianapolis 1,182,500
Nashville 1,102,340
Salt Lake City 1,100,260
San Antonio 1,031,180
(Montreal isn’t ranked by Nielsen, but is around 4 million.)
They’re all bigger than Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, but most not by much. So you have to wonder why Sternberg or another owner would spend hundreds of millions of dollars to go from a small MLB market to an even smaller one.
Neil,
Take the Rays out of TB, the Marlins take all of Florida and become a big market team. I also believe disposable income of the residence and sponsorship also should be considered in your analysis. That is why I think Portland, Charlotte and Raleigh are strong. I say the Rays try to make it work for the next 3 years in TB then Sternberg sells if not succesful. Orlando could also work because of its proximity to TB
No. You can’t count the whole state as one market. It doesn’t work like that.
People will not drive from northern Florida to see the Marlins. As it is, not that many people are even interested in driving from southern Florida to see the Marlins. Tampa is far from Miami.
The size of the city matters a lot in baseball because you have to get people to show up 81 times a year, including weekdays. It’s not like football where people will travel far 8 times a year on the weekend.
Attendance no longer is the key driver relating to revenue. If that was the case then why haven’t they moved the Marlins? Oh that’s right, because they have a new stadium. Which just goes to show they don’t care about attendance. It’s about leveraging stadium funding to keep floating their ponzi-scheme. They blame everyone else
for their greed. They over pay players and want tax dollars to sustain their failing model.
Yes, stadium deals are a grift, but obviously they care about attendance somewhat or building fancy stadiums wouldn’t matter.
They care most about the corporate tickets, of course, but they still need an audience – in person and on tv – to convince sponsors to spend money on advertising, etc, and in baseball, that audience is fairly local.
Because all of those car dealers and mattress stores (why are there so many) that spend money to advertise on the RSNs want to concentrate their ads on people close enough that they might come to their car dealership or mattress store.
Anyway, my main point was that you can’t just remove one of the teams in Florida and suddenly call the other team a “big market” team because the league has decreed that all of Florida should support the Marlins (or remove the Marlins and expect everyone to follow the Rays). That’s not how actual humans, let alone media markets, work.
BTW “they” can’t move the Marlins. There is no “they.” As long as the team has a lease and the owner wants to keep them where they are, they will stay. Manfred can’t just move teams because he wants to.
I don’t know whether “the rest” of Florida would adopt the Marlins if the Rays moved. From the attendance numbers for both teams, it seems Florida is not at all interested in either team.
I do know that Miami’s metro population is north of 6 million on it’s own (I believe 7th or 8th nationally?), so the fact of the matter is that they are already a big market team…. with a small market fan base. While the metro area is far from the richest in the nation (12th by GDP as I recall), it’s still way up there and should be able to support a team on it’s own.
Yet here we are…. The Rays and Marlins combined hover around 20k in avg actual attendance (vs tickets sold).
I consider Florida to be the Glendale of the baseball world. Money keeps getting sunk into the teams despite the fact that fans really don’t care – at least not in large enough numbers to matter.
If Florida is to work, Central Florida IMO would be the best choice. Expand fanbase from Tampa/St Pete, gain Central Florida and the Palm Coast down to the Space Coast.
Orlando is a fast growing metropolitan area as well as the rest of Central Florida. Backsides in seats counts, not fan loyalty. Many transplants like myself would purchase tickets when my team comes to town. Even some visitors to the theme parks may take a night to go to a game.
Years of the BQE and the Grand Central to go to Shea makes the drive on I4 similar.
Of course the Rays want someone else to pay for their ballpark and can Florida really support MLB would be the main issues.
See my comment above re: the Orlando and Tampa Bay metro areas currently growing at exactly the same rate.
“Expand fanbase from Tampa/St Pete, gain Central Florida and the Palm Coast down to the Space Coast.”
If you’ve lived here long enough, you would know this is not at all how pro sports fandom works anywhere in Florida.
What would actually happen in this scenario is,
1. The support for the Rays in Tampa Bay immediately craters (if not disappear altogether)
2. Whatever initial goodwill and afterglow exists for an Orlando franchise give way to complacency/apathy within two or three years — especially if the team isn’t a contender
3. People in places like Daytona, Melbourne, Ocala, Jacksonville, and beyond will keep cheering for other teams despite the newfound proximity of the Rays franchise (the first three towns are actually located inside the Orlando TV sphere, aka the biggest “secondary” market for the Rays)
Even if we factor for the “fannies in seats are more important than fan loyalty” line of thought, the bottom line is that Orlando is very much an event-based sports market in a way that Tampa Bay isn’t. There’s no getting people here to plan for a three-game midweek series against Seattle or Kansas City, even if the theoretical ballpark is in a centralized location.
If they key in on a ballpark location anywhere inside the Disney complex… forget it.
For a long time, the logic was “well, the teams are poorly run and lose too much.” But now the Rays are the best-run MLB team – on the field, at least – in memory. They won the AL Pennant with the lowest payroll. They’re set to be good for a while.
And still, attendance is low.
But, IIRC, their local TV ratings aren’t bad. Of course, a lot of those people are Yankee and Red Sox fans, but it does suggest there may be more interest in the team than the attendance suggests.
Jonah Keri (yeah, I know) wrote in his book about the Rays that traffic studies showed the Trop is the hardest MLB stadium for people to get to in a half hour. Moving them to Tampa would help with that a lot. Tampa and St Pete aren’t that close together. The actual bay is wide and there aren’t many bridges.
But as with the Coyotes and “Tempe will solve everything” the gap between the numbers they’re getting and what they want to get is so big that it’s hard to be confident that a better location is going to fix it.
Of course, the Lightning play in Tampa – very well, as it turns out – and they have no trouble filling their arena. And I think that’s giving people hope that an MLB stadium on that side of the bay could also work.
But the NHL plays about half as many games per year and, obviously, their facilities are air conditioned. It’s not at all clear that NHL popularity proves an MLB team can work. (That’s something the advocates of Las Vegas as an MLB city don’t seem to get. They think the Knights’ success proves something about baseball, which it does not.)
I also think that the “stink” from those early years of the Devil Rays when they had one of the worst owners in sports is still hanging over the team. So many people in North and Central Florida either don’t care about baseball or are invested in other teams.
Moving the team to Tampa would help with fans from Tampa, but would hurt with fans from St. Pete. I get that Tampa fans have more money, but really the ideal situation would be to build a stadium on a floating island in the middle of the bay.
In any case, the “problem” for the Rays is that they’re effectively one of MLB’s smaller markets, which somebody has to be, and they still manage to regularly show up in the postseason. So the only crisis appears to be, as John Bladen regularly points out, that Sternberg bought the team at a small-market price and is upset that he’s not making big-market profits.
There actually is a site that’s almost on an island in the middle of Tampa Bay. It’s the old dog track on the far north end of St Pete that’s right next to a bridge that now connects to downtown Tampa by expressway. (Dog racing is now illegal in Florida.) Developing a stadium on that site would probably be an environmental disaster, which given the state’s history makes it even more likely.
I’m sorry we never got to see the tampontreal ex-rays. That’s the real shame.
And of course, I’ll miss this stupid idea.
…I still wonder about the relevance of baseball. It feels like they’re on the cusp of oblivion given the lockout coupled with the desire to maintain “baseball legacy” in keeping the game slow and boring.
And the fact that they are still trying to figure where to play or whether they’ll get a new stadium is just… sad? Funny? I don’t know
I’d just like to express my deep appreciation for “Christina” for her (?) contribution to the video proceedings.
Finally, both Sternberg and Bronfman have described their (hare brained) scheme as “the future” for baseball.
Is this an admission by ownership groups generally that there are no more markets that can support MLB on their own and that all future expansion team sales will have to be split between multiple markets?
Are they finally out of major cities they think they can shake down and are just now laying the ground work for expansion to 40 teams with the last 10 vacuuming up tax dollars from 2 smaller cities each?
Kind of sounds like it. Discuss if you wish.
*to*
I think the markets that could will require a retractable roof. Retractable roof parks are a subpar experience so they might br putting the kibosh on new teams for decades. I would have liked to see teams in Portland and Montreal but i am not sure that is going to happen
Minnesota is muddling through without a roof. That stadium is great.
Of course, I’ve only been there in the summer. I haven’t been there in April.
The future of baseball? Don’t see the NY or California teams, (minus Oakland possibly), agreeing with that. STL, Boston, and the Chicago teams probably just rolled their eyes after that statement. Philadelphia probably is still laughing at that comment. Houston and Seattle probably thought they mis heard that statement. You get the point. The Rays owner knows it was a stupid idea and was just trying to justify the whole dumb concept.
I got slammed for this in the past, but I believe that baseball has over expanded. Ok, I get that every team makes money, but the sport is watered down IMO. With very few exceptions, the 4th and 5th starters I would consider AAAA if such a league existed. Many 22-26th players on teams shuttle between ML and AAA teams as interchangeable parts.
Is it better to have a sport with 28 thriving teams or 30-40 where 5-10 of them have attendance and TV contract issues?
MLB seems to care more about total numbers than regional. If at the end of the day all teams make money, but two less teams raise net income, dare I say it, “Contraction”. Before the keyboard warriors start, I know it will never happen and all teams make money. Where is the biggest net gain? Where is that next big market?
SF locked out San Jose and seems no bribe in the world will they relinquish their territory. NJ has been floated, but the Mets and Yankees would never say yes, though three NHL teams seem to survive with their own fan bases. Montreal? They are not building a stadium for someone else, so that is not happening. Keep hearing Nashville, but is TV and local market sufficient? I believe you need to count potential visitors and is Nashville a large tourist destination? Portland? No one wants to pay for a ballpark there. LV? The A’s are threatening to go there. If the do move, MLB is not placing another team in Oakland. Anyway, I would assume that the Rays would stay in the east so all the west coast possibilities would be out.
Honestly, If the Rays can’t find someone to build their new home, get use to the Trop or really Contraction really needs to be looked at. The end result may be a better product which brings more fans and puts more money into the MLB wallets. All teams make money, but if you raise quality with less teams, would it be possible to make up the difference?
My two cents on this altogether fascinating turn is that MLB was fine with this as a leverage scheme to try to work money out of TB for a new stadium but came to realize that Sternberg actually thought this was a realistic plan. So they figured they’d kill it and force him to quit wasting his time.
37 comments on a Tampa baseball article about something that isn’t going to happen.
And they say baseball is dead….
Talking about cockamamie MLB ballpark schemes with sub-zero chances of coming to fruition is more fun than most MLB ballgames nowadays, if we’re being all the way real.
I should install some cupholders and sell tickets.
And PSLs….