Lots of tea-leaf reading of late on Oakland A’s owner John Fisher’s Las Vegas stadium plans, which are either moving along full speed ahead or going nowhere fast, depending on who you ask. Las Vegas Stadium Authority Board chair/unregistered A’s lobbyist Steve Hill, for example, is still gung ho, telling the Associated Press:
“They’re coming and they’ve said they can finance this stadium,” Hill said. “They are going to play baseball here in 2028. I frankly think it’s just fun (for critics) to create some drama around it and that’s happening. That keeps all of our lives a little more interesting, but it doesn’t change the facts on the ground, which is they’ve said what they’re going to do and they’re just doing it.”
In an oh-so-long thread on ex-Twitter on Sunday, meanwhile, tech exec and Oakland A’s fan Bryan Cantrill laid out all the reasons to be skeptical that Fisher will do anything of the sort, which comes down to: Fisher has to either borrow the money and pay it back, or sell some of his assets, which are mostly just the A’s, the San Jose Earthquakes, and about $1 billion in Gap Inc. stock. Taking out a loan, Cantrill suggests, will be hard because lenders will look askance at the revenue projections for a team playing short-term in a minor-league stadium in Sacramento and long-term in a still-small stadium in the smallest MLB city; selling chunks of the teams will be hard because investors are unlikely to want to sink a lot of money into teams they don’t control, especially if the A’s don’t look like all that valuable an asset going forward.
So who’s right? We don’t know — and, given the way team valuation works, there may not even be a “right” answer. If Fisher can find either a bank or a bunch of rich suckers who he (or Hill or Dave Kaval or whoever) can talk into believing his Vegas dream, then he can maybe pull this off; if he can’t, then he needs a Plan B, and at that point it’s likely either hunker down in Sacramento and hope he can cut a stadium deal there or sell the team to someone with deeper pockets. (Despite some suggestions online that MLB could contract the A’s franchise, that seems extraordinarily unlikely, for the same reasons contraction never happened in the early 2000s: It would require union signoff, would be crazy expensive for the league, would open the door to antitrust suits, etc.)
But until he’s officially shot down, there’s still hope, so it makes sense that Fisher and his friends are continuing to act as if a Vegas stadium is totally happening, because believing in yourself is the necessary first step toward getting others to believe in you. If this sounds more like a Netflix-movie-level grift than a viable business plan, well, it’s only a grift if you get caught.
Sacramento has a huge budget deficit and blew its bonding authority on the Kings. West Sacramento is a small city and couldn’t possibly do it.
I’m thinking this would be a joint effort between Vivek Ranadive and Fisher so we wouldn’t be looking at any public investment. Since this would most likely be an outdoor facility, Fisher on his own would still be putting up less than he would in Vegas even though the state is throwing in $328 million
I agree. By the time any term sheet is drafted, the proposed Las Vegas Stadium will likely cost more than $2 billion to develop. Fisher’s frugality has been well documented. He will never place himself in a position with partners who can initiate a proxy war for control of the A’s. Vivek appears to be the only deep pocketed investor, who would find a pragmatic way to get a stadium for the A’s.
If baseball and the A’s had their act together, they would have told the Giants to let the A’s play at Oracle Park for a few years while the Oakland Coliseum was demolished and replaced. Or made the Giants let the A’s move to San Jose.
These and countless other perfectly logical solutions. The list of ideas that actually make sense is pretty long, and does not include anything the A’s are actually doing.
“having your act together” doesn’t mean crashing on your buddy’s couch for a few years, while mooching off of his co-workers.
It could. But only if your landlord is spending big to build you a new apartment while paying you for the inconvenience of having to couch surf with friends for a coupla years.
It could.
Manfred and a few owners could end this West Sacramento/ Vegas nonsense in 15 minutes. Tell the Giants their territory is SF, SanMateo, Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Santa Clara County west of the Lawrence Expressway.
The Giants’ territory is everything from San Luis Obispo to Grants Pass, and the ocean to Elko, with the exception of Alameda County. Alameda County is A’s territory. Everywhere else, the A’s are pepsi. And those fans aren’t going to shift for Manfred or owners or anybody.
I don’t buy it, at all. I know plenty of former A’s fans who switched their allegiance because the Giants were just plain a better-run team. But it would be far more convenient for all of those people to attend A’s games at a transit-accessible East Bay ballpark, and they would certainly switch back if the A’s were fielding winning teams.
This is why Howard Terminal was always a non-starter, and perhaps an indicator that Fisher was only half-serious about staying in Oakland. At best, it would have been the, as you said, Diet Pepsi version of the Giants’ ballpark, and replicated many of the same transit and accessibility hassles for people coming from the east.
It should be child’s play for the A’s to draw even or outdraw the Giants, but the problem has been a succession of owners who see a baseball team as a passive asset to be milked, not an entertainment business that has to be actively run as such.
No one wants to drive to BFE San Jose for a game. There are a lot of North Bay A’s fans.
BINGO!
It would probably be possible to build a 30,000 seat open air stadium in Sacramento on alot more than 9 acres for around $500 million. Some of the gold plating that MLB now considers “essential” would be missing, but it would be functional, affordable and keep the A’s close to their fan base. That would be way to practical for MLB, when building a $2 billion stadium designed to “crumble” in less than 20 years is the way to go!!! A dome would be completely unnecessary, it never rains in Sacramento during baseball season, except sometimes in April and early May. By the way, has anyone asked Pete Rose his opinion of placing a MLB team in Vegas and placing sportsbooks in MLB stadiums? The answer might be colorful and interesting.
There is 0 chance to build a facility for $500M in modern climate.
With public money unlikely in Northern California, a stripped down stadium in Sacramento might be the best option. A large percentage of today’s sky high stadium costs are League demands for state of the art gold plating. When Jerry Jones built his over the top Jerry’s World, that was the Cowboys and Dallas. Building a duplicate in Greensboro won’t turn Greensboro into Dallas. Beyond the casinos, who will buy luxury suites in Vegas? A bare bones 30,000 stadium in Sacramento will probably fill on many nights , and make more money than an empty gold elephant in Vegas.
I could definitely see Sacramento as a better home for the A’s then Oakland was but regarding the suites in Vegas, I don’t think the A’s need to look beyond the casinos depending on how many suites are going to be in that place. A lot of projections have casinos buying up over 90% of the available suites. Throw in the law firms and you have it covered
Not to mention, the Sacramento media market is ranked more than twenty (20)
rating points higher than Las Vegas.
Snapdragon Stadium is a 35k seat football stadium that opened in 2022 in San Diego for $310 million. I know inflation has been high, but not that extreme. A 35k seat ballpark absolutely can be built up to MLBPA requirements for under $500 million in Sacramento. It wouldn’t have air conditioning and could be a real bear to be in on Sacramento’s worst summer nights, but it could be done.
Now, if you want to include the cost of the land, sure it’d be impossible to keep the total price down below $500 million. But that’s where local government can do all sorts of tax abatements and other forms of assistance to bring that side of the ledger down.
Unlike John Fisher, Bryan Cantrill has a very impressive resume in his industry, and I’ve been watching Oxide Computer with great interest. Their products may not make sense to us mere mortals who aren’t guiding 7-9 figure corporate infrastructure budgets, but when a person in his position talks about this stuff, it’s definitely worth listening. He even makes his commentary work well as a Twitter thread, a format I normally deplore (especially now that the site is well into its death spiral), surfacing a lot of interesting citations. And his emphasis on cashflow is crucial! I still think all coverage of this situation underplays what a huge blow to the Fisher family empire the Gap dividend cut was. Ending that many years of not just dividend payment, but dividend growth, is something that leaves a lasting stain on the business.
As far as contraction goes, what they did to the minor leagues is surely as far as they want the decline of “official” baseball to go. If they did contract the major leagues, then it wouldn’t just be a dope like Fisher struggling to secure financing, it would be everybody. Demands for public financing would be much more likely to get laughed at, and the sport would be dwelling in the basement below even hockey. And if we know one thing about MLB ownership, it’s that their pocketbooks are #1.
Lastly, re: Mr. Hill the unregistered lobbyist… I’ll tell you all right now that I can finance a used Maserati. That doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea, or that what happens after doing so won’t make my life a little more “interesting,” but it would be “just fun” for anybody watching me who enjoys schadenfreude.
The MLB CBA prevents contraction and there isn’t a 2nd team that would want to contract with them anyway.
Yes, as noted in the article above. The only way I could imagine it coming to pass is some sort of negotiated buyout with the union and with two contracting teams. That’s a complete fantasy scenario, as it would be like driving an asteroid into league-wide revenue.
On the flip side, I struggle to see the rationale for expanding by two teams right now, except that 32 teams would be more evenly divisible into 8 regional divisions. The league both has to figure out what comes after regional sports network revenue, and also acclimate itself to the reality that public stadium financing is a harder sell going forward. Expansion is a topic for the 2030s at best, and probably for a different commissioner too.
Don’t be so sure. I’ve said I plan to retire. But if my industry really really needs me, I might make myself available.
I’m not saying one way or the other. I’m just saying.
Expansion should have been on Manfred’s mind back in 2015-2016 as cord cutting was mainstreamed and any media watcher could tell that cable (and the RSNs that depend on it) was not long for this world. Unfortunately they slept on it and this weird timeline was created requiring Tampa and Oakland to have a stadium solution before expansion. Meanwhile across the country major markets have lost their RSN money, a red flag that will drive down the price of expansion whenever they get around to it.
It raises the specter that teams will have to do a much better job at building direct relationships with their fanbase. This is a very scary prospect if you’re not the Yankees/Red Sox/Giants/maybe Cubs? All of a sudden, a baseball team has be an actual competitive business!
The A’s were getting there with the A’s Access idea, where you had standing-room-only access to all home games, with the option to upgrade to an open seat once you were in the ballpark. If that deal had included streaming access to the games, even for a substantial premium, I would have signed up for it every year it was available. Something much like that is very likely the future for MLB, so I will give Dave Kaval credit for doing that much of his job, for as long as he did it.
Now, if they manage to get this thing built, they will no doubt try the same plan again in Vegas… in a smaller, lower-income market; after having demolished their existing fanbase; with direct, immediately adjacent competition that will comp you alcohol to keep you in their building, rather than charging you $20 upfront for a beer.
Back in the day the As had great teams. Canseco, Rollie Fingers etc.
Oakland deserves a team. Just like in Montreal who wants to support a owner who is going to move them?
Las vegas probably will make a good mlb city as nhl and nfl but at the expense of another cities team.
Their owner seems like a butmunch.
In Las Vegas, a fully air conditioned, fully covered stadium will be mandatory. The summer temperature, between the months of June – September, ranges from 105°-115° on a daily basis.
It’s important to remember that Warriors owner Joe Lacob, who is a billionaire, has an outstanding offer to purchase the A’s from John Fisher. He would likely be the highest bidder unless an unknown party emerged. Lacob stated recently the offer is still on the table, and he would keep the A’s in Oakland.
Manfred might *eventually* force Fisher to sell, but he won’t let Fisher sell to anyone who would keep the team in Oakland. Either the sale would be to Ranadive and the team stays in Sacramento, or the sale would be to owners who are capable of getting a ballpark built in southern Nevada.
I’m not so sure about that, either. If it gets bad enough, anyone who says, “I’m gonna spend however much it takes to build a ballpark on a site already pre-approved,” will get MLB’s attention if it takes a long-running problem off their hands. And that’s the kicker with the Coliseum site – it’s already there, and the infrastructure is already settled.
Rip out Oracle, build a ballpark on that half, replace the Coliseum with a slimmed-down arena replacement tailored towards concerts and live events, convert 1/2 of the parking lot to a “baseball village”, and it’s done. I bet if a community investment package was pledged for neighboring Lockwood Gardens, maybe also include some promises to hire local union workers, the county or state would kick in low 9 figures to spruce up that BART station and walk to the park.
Not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but there’s a distinct possibility that Lacob or another Silicon Valley billionaire with a ballpark at the Coliseum site will be the only option left. The league office has hated the idea of being in Oakland for decades – Selig infamously said it was a mistake for Charles O. Finley to move the team from Kansas City to Oakland – but they’re not so dogmatically against the market that they’d keep this club in limbo forever.