Taxpayer subsidy for Commanders stadium hits $1.5B, for public return of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There’s a bit more information now about the details of Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s plan to help build a new Washington Commanders stadium at the former site of RFK Stadium — not nearly enough information, mind you, not when the only official documents are a cursory press release, a hype video, and a PR slideshow. But at least we can start to get a general sense of what we know and what we don’t know:

Stuff D.C. taxpayers would be on the hook for:

• $500 million for “horizontal construction, meaning roads, sidewalks, etc. around the stadium.” Some or all of that money would be raised by extending the business tax surcharge that was used to pay to build the Nationals stadium, and which was supposed to sunset next year once those bonds were paid off, and putting the money toward Commanders stadium costs.
• $181 million for a parking garage, to be paid for by EventsDC, the city’s convention and sports authority.
• $175 million to “purchase other parking facilities from the Commanders in 2032.”
• $202 million for “utilities infrastructure, roadways, and a WMATA transit study” so the rest of the site can be built out.
• $89 million for an indoor “sportsplex” for youth track and gymnastics.
• An estimated $429 million in foregone property taxes on the value of the stadium alone.
• The lost value of whatever the development rights to the RFK site would be worth if opened up to bidders, assuming Commanders owner Josh Harris won’t be paying full market value for the “multiple parcels of land” he would be “activating and developing” with “restaurants, entertainment venues, hotels, housing, green space, and more.”
• Any costs of developing the Kingman Park District, a parcel of the land that D.C. would remain in control of.
• Any costs of building a new Metro transit station, depending on what that WMATA transit study finds the site needs.
• Any costs of providing police and fire services  to the stadium, plus schools and other services to the surrounding mixed-use community.

Stuff D.C. taxpayers would get in return:

• New tax revenues amounting to … well, that’a a good question. Bowser’s office has asserted that the project would create “approximately $4 billion in total tax revenue” over the next 30 years, a number that has found its way into innumerable media reports. (The Washingtonian, getting extra-excited and not bothering to read too closely, called it “$4 billion in annual new tax revenue,” which even Bowser isn’t claiming.) I initially assumed that was from the report by consultants Jones Lang LaSalle Americas Inc. and the Robert Bobb Group that the district released last June — but even that report, with its no sourcing or methodology beyond citing the software package IMPLAN, only projects (see table 6.7) $26 million in annual tax revenue, which would be worth about $400 million in present value.
• Rent or a cut of stadium revenues, maybe? Neither Bowser nor Harris has breathed a word of what a proposed lease would look like, so we have no idea here, beyond reports that the plan to have Harris build garages and sell them to D.C. for $175 million would be paid for out of “in-stadium activity once the stadium is operating,” which could mean either actual in-stadium revenue or things like kicked-back sales taxes on hot dog sales, so really we have no idea here.
• A guarantee that the Commanders would play at the D.C. site for … again, no lease yet, so no clue.
• A guarantee that at least 30% of the housing built would be affordable, which is required by city law so would be the case with any development of the RFK site.

Those seem to be the major line items. There are, clearly, a lot of questions — starting with “How the hell would it cost D.C. half a billion dollars just for roads and sidewalks” but also including how many as-yet-unreported costs are hiding in the fine print and whether Harris would give up even a sliver of the money he takes in at his new stadium to help defray the public’s share. It seems reasonable, though, to say that Bowser’s proposed stadium deal would involve at least $1.5 billion in subsidies to Commanders owner Harris, in exchange for benefits that are still almost entirely undefined.

Unlike most other media reports on this deal, I just went back and changed all instances of “will” to “would,” because we’re still talking about a hypothetical here: Mayor Bowser may have signed off on all this, but D.C. hasn’t approved nothing until its council weighs in on it. The mayor will need seven out of 12 votes on the council — how’s that going so far?

• Council chair Phil Mendelson, probably not: “The cost to the District will be nearly $1 billion – and that does not include investments in Metro and the surrounding park land site – and I continue to be concerned with investing any public money into a stadium while we have constrained budgets and revenues, and unmet needs.”
• Ward 1 councilmember Brianne Nadeau, no: “It’s a ‘no’ for me. The District cannot afford to spend $1 billion in taxpayer money on a sports stadium for a privately held team, a stadium that will sit dark most days.”
• Ward 2 councilmember Brooke Pinto, yes: “Welcoming the Washington Commanders back to DC is not only good for the team, it’s an investment in our city’s spirit, in economic development, and in a future for our city that makes us all proud.”
• Ward 6 councilmember Charles Allen, no: “In stark financial terms, at a time when the District is facing a recession and tens of thousands of workers are losing their jobs, this proposal is asking DC residents to pay more than $4 million for each and every home game for the next 30 years, a proposal that doesn’t even include funding for a sorely needed Metro station expansion to give people alternatives to driving.”
• Ward 7 councilmember Wendell Felder, probably: “As the councilmember I plan to conduct a robust community engagement plan to go directly to neighbors especially around the neighboring communities and figure out what we can do to make sure their quality of life is not disrupted.”
• At-large member Kenyan McDuffie, yes: “We want to make sure we are that we are working together as a council, working with the executive to do what’s in the best interest of the District of Columbia residents, taxpayers, and families. This deal is going to fit within those priorities.”
• At-large councilmember Anita Bonds, yes: “For me it’s about or community, and every community is looking to ways to revitalize, and we are lucky. We have the Commanders that want to be here.”
• Ward 4 councilmember Janeese Lewis George and at-large members Robert White and Christina Henderson, probably not, having signed on to a 2022 letter stating that “we will not support a football stadium” at the RFK site.
• Ward 3 councilmember Matthew Frumin, Ward 5 councilmember Zachary Parker, no data.

That’s going to be a tough vote, though as always, close decisions in city councils usually end up meaning haggling, and swing votes can often be had pretty cheap. Bowser wants this approved by June, so the next few weeks are going to see the pressure turned up on D.C. elected officials — watch the tea leaves closely, and if you’re a D.C. resident who has feels about this plan, share them with your representatives ASAP.