How many billions of tax dollars would a Bears megaproject bill cost Illinois? The Cook County treasurer investimagates

The Cook County treasurer’s office released a report this morning on the fiscal impact of the proposed “megaprojects” tax break bill that Chicago Bears execs are pushing for, and concluding: “The benefits for the Bears and other megaproject developers are clear, while the benefits for Illinois residents are murky.” there are a bunch of interesting tidbits in it:

• As reported previously, the bill would be for far more than just a Bears project in Arlington Heights, with any development costing $100 million or more potentially being eligible to negotiate lower property tax payments as a condition of construction. (Technically property tax payments would be frozen at pre-construction levels; the developer would then negotiate an agreement with local government on how much extra to pay in payments in lieu of taxes, with the total being less than what they would have paid without the megaproject designation.) This could include a potential new White Sox stadium, as well as numerous other non-sports projects: The Chicago planning department, notes the report, “lists at least five projects with price tags of more than $100 million that were under construction in 2025 alone” just in Chicago’s Loop and Near West Side.
• The bill would also expand the use of Sales Tax and Revenue (STAR) bonds, kicking back sales taxes to pay for developments as well. “The bill is about far more than just PILOT,” treasurer’s office research director Hal Dardick told the Chicago Tribune. “It’s about creating a sales tax increment and a hotel tax increment to fund borrowing by these developers — they can get breaks on top of breaks.”
• Part of the PILOT payment would be sliced off to fund property tax relief, something that it was previously estimated would only provide about $1.29 per homeowner on average. If the money were instead targeted to just Arlington Heights, though, it could provide a tax break of about $280 per year — 3.3% of the village’s average tax bill — while the rest of Cook County homeowners got bupkis. Meanwhile, making Swiss cheese out of the state’s property tax base via tax breaks for developers would undercut the ability of local governments to reduce property tax rates more broadly.
• The legislation would allow a 9% amusement tax surcharge on megaprojects funded with STAR bonds — but not on a Bears stadium, which would be exempt. (If a Bears stadium even used STAR bonds, which is as yet unclear.)
• University of Colorado Denver property tax expert Geoffrey Propheter says the tax break on a Bears stadium alone would be about $39 million a year, or more than $1.5 billion over 40 years, a present value of just under $700 million in forgone property taxes. That’s less than the $2 billion figure Propheter previously estimated, but only because, as Propheter confirms by email, the earlier figure included forgone property tax revenues on the entire project, not just the stadium. (The report doesn’t estimate a figure for total tax losses from beyond that it could be in the “billions,” which seems pretty obvious if the Bears project alone could be $2 billion.)
• “Should the Illinois bill become law, one key question will remain: would the amount of property taxes the team and any other megaproject developers end up paying be enough to cover the increased costs of education and other local services made necessary by their projects?” Good question!
• There are plenty of other development projects that have more economic impact than an NFL stadium and which pay their full share of taxes: For example, “Old Orchard Mall in Skokie draws 13 million customers annually, generates more than $50
  million in state and local sales tax revenue – compared with $27 million projected by the Bears for the team’s development – and employs 2,500 people at a location that is open 363 days per year.” Building subsidized projects means the same land is no longer available for unsubsidized ones that, while potentially less sexy than football, could be just as good for the local economy.
• Even if the Bears might move to Hammond, Indiana without the megaprojects tax subsidy, that might not be so bad: Hammond is actually closer to Chicago than Arlington Heights, so the likelihood of Bears fans still spending money on food and hotels in Chicago means  “a stadium in Hammond would still produce economic benefits for Chicago and the state of Illinois — with Indiana taxpayers picking up the $1 billion tab to subsidize the development.”

That’s a whole lot of known unknowns and unknown unknowns, but the upshot is still: Allowing all big development projects to negotiate their own property tax bills, and allowing more of them to siphon off sales taxes as well, could come at an enormous cost to city, county, and Illinois state treasuries. Add in the $855 million in infrastructure money that the Bears still want as well — despite not yet spelling out exactly what they want to use it for — and the six days left for the Illinois legislature to get any of this done in addition to a state budget, and it’s maybe no surprise that Gov. JB Pritzker was left on Friday trying to assure everyone that the Arlington Heights stadium isn’t dead just yet:

“I’ve seen miracles happen every year. Every single year,” Pritzker said after an unrelated event in Joliet when asked about his assessment of the legislature passing a last-minute bill to incentivize the Bears in the state. “I feel confident that there will be a bill that gets brought up in the Senate, and then hopefully they’ll pass it and send it over to the House, and that bill will be about whether or not we’re keeping them in the state of Illinois or letting them go to Indiana.” …

Pritzker on Friday said he hasn’t personally lobbied members of the Chicago legislative delegation on the latest stadium issue.

“This week, I’m not like calling them into my office and talking to each one of them. We have a lot of things on our plate, as you might know, to get done this week,” Pritzker said.

Is that code for “We’ve talked behind the scenes and I know this will get done” or for “Oh well, I can say I tried, it’s Indiana’s funeral if they want to send a pile of moneybags to the Bears”? We’ll know by Friday, maybe.