You may recall that at the end of January, a group of Arizona state legislators proposed siphoning off all the sales and income taxes collected around the Diamondbacks‘ stadium and kicking it back to team owner Ken Kendrick so he could make upgrades to the stadium. Estimated cost at the time: $230-300 million in present value.
Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego has now done her own assessment of the value of the proposed tax kickback — or kickover, since it’s not really tax money the D-Backs ever paid, that’s the Casino Night Fallacy talking — and come up with a much higher number:
Gallego said Phoenix’s analysis showed a $720 million loss in tax revenue to the state. Phoenix specifically would miss out on $6.4 million in tax revenue each year under the bill, penciling out to $192 million over the 30-year term.
Factoring in income tax from MLB players, not including staff and spouses, would cost another $105 million, according to the state analysis, Gallego noted.
“After accounting for lost construction sales tax revenue, additional revenues that can follow a significant renovation to a major league sports facility, and inflation over 30 years, the bill in its current form will certainly cost more than $1 billion in public funds,” Gallego wrote.
As regular readers of this site know, one of the big headaches of figuring out the costs of benefits of stadium projects, or any kind of spending projects really, is the difference between nominal cost (all the payments made over time, added up) and present value (how much you could afford to buy now with all those future payments. It’s the difference between adding up all your future mortgage payments and how much you paid for your house — the first number is a lot bigger, but isn’t the “real” cost to you since a lot of those payments don’t have to be made for years down the road, meaning you can make it up by earning interest on the money until you have to write the checks.
Gallego’s letter to Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs estimates the cost to Phoenix, Maricopa County, and the state of four different tax revenue streams that would be handed over to the Diamondbacks owner:
- City sales taxes: $6.4 million/year
- County sales taxes: $1.6 million/year
- State sales taxes $16 million/year
- State income taxes: $3.5 million/year
That comes to $27.5 million a year, which Gallego multiplies by a 30-year agreement to come up with $825 million. But that’s nominal cost — all the payments added up over time. How much is that actually worth to Arizona taxpayers right now?
There are lots of ways to estimate that, but plugging the numbers into a present value calculator at a reasonable discount rate (say, 5%, which is usually in the ballpark for how much interest you can earn on money over time) is usually a good start. We have one right here, and the answer is: $423 million.
That’s a fair bit less than $825 million, but also a fair bit more than $230-300 million. And either way, it is, to coin a phrase, starting to add up to real money.
The Diamondbacks tax subsidy bill passed the Arizona house last month, and is now slated to be voted on by the state senate, after which it would move on to Gov. Hobbs, who has expressed support for it. It would be nice if Arizona officials established first how much money they would be sending the D-Backs owner’s way, but no time for that when a team owner says he needs a new stadium because reasons.