A’s make getting $500m+ in Vegas stadium funding team’s priority, Oakland cuts off talks

Last night, Oakland A’s stadium-search czar Dave Kaval told the San Francisco Chronicle that team execs had entered an agreement to buy 49 acres of land just west of the Las Vegas Strip for the purposes of building a $1 billion, 35,000-seat stadium and relocating the team.

“For a long time we were on parallel paths and right now, at this moment, and with this transaction that we just entered into, we are really focusing our efforts on Las Vegas and on bringing the 20-year saga of the A’s stadium venue efforts to kind of a final positive conclusion,” Kaval told the Chronicle. He later told the Las Vegas Sun that the plan is to enter a public-private partnership — more on that in a minute — and open a “partially domed” (the Sun’s words) stadium at the corner of Tropicana Avenue and Dean Martin Drive by the start of the 2027 season.

So far, this wasn’t yet necessarily a death knell for the Oakland A’s: Team owner John Fisher will still need to negotiate the public share of that billion-dollar price tag, making this very much like the Chicago Bears situation with Arlington Heights, where the team owners have control of the land they want but are still jockeying for the tax kickbacks they say they need to build a stadium. But what happened next might well put the A’s on the fast track to their fourth city in the last 70 years:

  • Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao announced that she was cutting off talks on a new A’s stadium at Howard Terminal, effective immediately. Declaring herself “deeply disappointed that the A’s have chosen not to negotiate with the City of Oakland as a true partner,” she said that “in the last three months, we’ve made significant strides to close the deal. Yet, it is clear to me that the A’s have no intention of staying in Oakland and have simply been using this process to try to extract a better deal out of Las Vegas. I am not interested in continuing to play that game — the fans and our residents deserve better.”
  • Kaval, told of the mayor’s remarks, replied, “That’s the first I’ve heard of that, to be honest with you. And I guess what I would say is we are always open to a dialogue.”

There are two ways to read this — as Kaval genuinely being surprised because he was hoping to use the Vegas plans to get a bidding war going, or as Kaval trying to spin the team’s relocation plans as “Hey, we wanted to leave the door open to staying in Oakland, it’s the mayor who shut down talks” — and your tea leaves are as good as mine for determining which is the case. But for now, at least, it’s full speed ahead toward the Las Vegas A’s, which raises an absolute ton of questions:

  • Where will the money for a stadium come from? Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo immediately declared his happiness at the prospect of the A’s moving to his state, but decidedly did not commit to anything about stadium funding, continuing his tightlippedness on the subject. Finding a billion dollars — or more, depending on whether “partially domed” means a retractable roof as has been discussed before or just an elaborate sun roof — is not a trivial matter, especially when Kaval seems to have just given up all his leverage by burning his bridges in Oakland. The Nevada Independent, however, reports, citing unnamed sources, that Lombardo has secretly signed off on kicking back sales taxes from a ballpark district, plus providing around $500 million in “transferrable tax credits,” which would allow the governor to provide a Raiders-level payout to Fisher while still technically sticking to a “no new taxes” pledge. (UPDATE: Kaval confirmed to The Athletic that he’s working on an “incentive package” worth “$500 million,” though “we’re not all the way there.”)
  • Where would the A’s play until a new stadium is ready? The team’s Oakland lease expires after next season, and Thao seems unlikely to agree to extend it for a lame duck franchise. Fisher does own the Las Vegas Aviators [CORRECTION: Fisher doesn’t own them, he just has a development agreement with them], who play in Summerlin, Nevada (and who Kaval said would stay put as a Las Vegas A’s farm club), so a timesharing arrangement for that team’s stadium is possible [NON-CORRECTION: still possible!] — it only holds 10,000 fans, but then, it’s unlikely more people than that are going to want to turn out to see an A’s squad that is currently last in the majors with a beyond abysmal 3-16 record.
  • Would MLB approve a move? Three-quarters of the league’s owners would have to vote to approve a relocation, and while they’re generally supportive of each others’ plans and would undoubtedly love to see the A’s situation finally resolved, you also have to wonder if they’ll all be quick to okay trading down from a second team in a large market to what would be the smallest media market in the league. There’s also the matter of any relocation decision taking place against a backdrop of the U.S. trying to figure out how to reallocate the Southwest’s dwindling water supply from the Colorado River, which could throw a wrench into a lot of plans not just for Las Vegas but for other cities like Phoenix as well.

I have absolutely expressed skepticism that the A’s would move in the past, for the simple reason that it wasn’t clear any deal Fisher and Kaval could extract from Nevada would be better than the $775 million in infrastructure money he has on the table from Oakland — though if the reports about Nevada tax kickbacks are true, that could well shift the financial incentives. But regardless, as the history of sports, not to mention other things, shows clearly, this is how momentous decisions tend to get made: not by calm, rational thinking, but by gamesmanship and impulsiveness and falling in love with a dream even if it turns out you haven’t fully thought through all the consequences. Unless there’s a major curveball soon — Kaval told the Sun the A’s face a January 2024 deadline, though it wasn’t immediately clear for what — it looks likely that we’re going to see only the second MLB relocation in the last 50 years, for better or for worse. Which means all that’s left to do is to haggle over the price: Hold onto your wallets, Nevadans.

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A’s owners reportedly still hunting for Vegas stadium land, five months after saying final choice was imminent

There is news, of a sort, about the Oakland A’s owners’ perpetual claim that even as they seek a billion dollars in city money to build new roads and other infrastructure for a Howard Terminal stadium development, they’re working on a “parallel path” to move to Las Vegas if they don’t get what they want. Per the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Casino magnate Phil Ruffin is heading to the Bay Area on Tuesday to meet with Oakland Athletics brass about a potential site for a new ballpark, a source told the Review-Journal.

Ruffin has ownership of multiple properties in Las Vegas, including Circus Circus and the Las Vegas Festival Grounds adjacent to that.

I mean, sure, maybe? Kicking the tires on various Las Vegas properties doesn’t cost A’s owner John Fisher anything, and, like sending his execs to tweet from Las Vegas hockey games, it rattles sabers about the possibility of the team relocating. Not sure whether Ruffin’s property is supposed to be one of the five in Vegas that team president Dave Kaval said in March he was focusing on, though given that he said then that he hoped to pick a winner by April, either 1) words that come out of Kaval’s mouth are not to be trusted, 2) something went wrong with the other five sites and now Kaval is trying to drum up new options, or 3) both.

The more important question than which particular slice of desert Fisher and Kaval will target, of course, is who on earth would foot the price tag for a Vegas stadium, and nobody at all is talking publicly about that. Moving to a teensy media market for a sport that requires selling tickets to 81 games a year seems like a risk, to say the least, especially a market that could be uninhabitable soon thanks to climate change and the West’s water crisis; spending $1 billion or so in order to do so seems riskier still.

Over in Oakland, meanwhile, Fisher’s stadium dreams, currently waiting on Mayor Libby Schaaf’s continuing attempts to dig under the office sofas for spare change to spend on them, is facing a new lawsuit from a bunch of port unions that charge the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s June vote to allow the project to move forward was made “arbitrarily and capriciously” — that would seem to describe how a whole lot of government decisions are made every day, but in the U.S. anyone can file a lawsuit for any reason and usually does, so more power to ’em. The timing does raise the question as to whether the Review-Journal’s “source” leaked the news of a Ruffin meeting over Vegas land as if to say, “Yeah, go ahead and sue us, we’ll take our ball and go to Vegas, see if we don’t”; it certainly would be in character for sports team owners, let’s just leave it at that.

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Are the Oakland A’s really seriously considering moving to Las Vegas? A non-investigation

Ever since Alameda County slammed the brakes on its participation in the Oakland A’s planned stadium project last week, there’s been mostly quiet from the A’s front office about how the team owners plan to proceed either there or on their “parallel path” of relocating to Las Vegas. So it’s been left to the nation’s sportswriters to conduct independent investigations. How’d they do? Let’s find out!

  • Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal set out to answer the question “Is there a limit to the number of pro sports teams Vegas can support?”, which is a legitimate one, since Vegas would be easily the smallest U.S. media market with three Big Four sports teams if MLB joined the Raiders and Golden Knights there. (Second-smallest: Milwaukee, if you count the Green Bay Packers as part of that market; Pittsburgh, if you don’t.) This is something that’s been studied a fair bit in the past, including in repeated analyses by American City Business Journals and other business publications. (Vegas was deemed ripe for sports expansion then, but also didn’t have the NHL or NFL at the time.) Akers, however, skipped right past any fancy math about per-capita income or anything and instead talked solely to people with a vested interest around expanding pro sports in Vegas: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steve Hill, Gov. Steve Sisolak, Clark County Commissioner Michael Naft, Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air chief marketing officer Scott DeAngelo, and Raiders owner Mark Davis, most of whom responded with variations on “Sure, hell yeah!” — with the one exception, Davis, saying of a potential baseball team, “I think people will go. I just don’t know how many.”
  • Rickeyblog proprietor Alex Espinoza spent a week wandering around the greater Vegas area for SF Gate in hopes of finding someone who would talk to him about the A’s plans there and whether they’re real or a bluff, only to get stonewalled at every turn. (Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman: “We have had great discussions with the A’s management and we look forward to future talks with the team to showcase the advantages of moving to Southern Nevada.” City of Henderson spokesperson: Talks with the A’s are “broad and exploratory in nature.” You get the idea.) Instead, Espinoza took to visiting the various sites that A’s president Dave Kaval has been kicking the tires on, finding a whole lot of desert, then finally landing an interview with none other than Akers, who said that while he was initially “skeptical” that the A’s were serious, now he thinks that “the longer this drags out, the more real it becomes,” because “they’re meeting with all the right people out here.” Then he reached sports marketing consultant Jeremy Aguero of Applied Analysis, who may or may not be working for the A’s on studies of the Vegas market, and when asked if the area could support 81 games a year of baseball vs. 41 of hockey or eight of football, replied unhelpfully, “That’s really hard to say.” Espinoza was left concluding that an A’s-to-Vegas move is “more of a fallback plan, at least for now, than a ‘parallel path,'” since at least Oakland is a proven market with an existing stadium and a new-stadium plan in place, whereas Las Vegas is still a question mark in all those areas.

None of that really sheds much light on anything, unfortunately: As I noted last time we discussed this in-depth back in June, sports execs bluffing about a move sound exactly the same as those who are serious about one — and sometimes even the execs themselves haven’t decided how serious they are, since they don’t really have to until someone calls their bluff. With no one speaking publicly about whether there are any market studies showing that Vegas could support an MLB team or about how exactly a stadium there could be paid for, there isn’t much to say beyond what’s been said for months now: Kaval & Co. would clearly rather stay in Oakland in a new stadium with somebody else fronting $855 million for road and infrastructure upgrades, and Plan B remains some variation on “You don’t want to see what we’ll do when we get angry!” Which they already are, clearly, but they still haven’t followed through on threats to walk away from Oakland and get serious with Las Vegas, or at least they haven’t unless there’s secret serious behind-the-scenes talks going on, which there’s no evidence of, but then there wouldn’t be if they were secret — you know what, let’s just look at some pictures of the Nevada desert and go, “Wow, that’s deserty!” and call it a day.

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A’s execs reject Oakland’s latest stadium offer, this is just how games of chicken work

It’s tricky writing about a breaking news situation where the “news” is mostly posturing by various sides: If you report on something someone says, is that relaying information, or acting as a mouthpiece for their gamesmanship? It’s a tough call, which is probably why so many journalists these days seem inclined to punt the entire question and just print everything any major political or business players say without context or analysis. (Ha ha, of course I kid, it’s because only the rare journalists these days consider context or analysis to be part of their job.)

Anyway, with one day to go before tomorrow’s Oakland A’s stadium vote, there’s so much verbiage being thrown about that only bullet points can convey the urgency:

  • On Friday, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf’s office put out a counterproposal to A’s owner John Fisher’s initial $855 million subsidy demand, and it included a bunch of changes. Only one Infrastructure Financing District would be created to siphon off future property tax revenues, directly around the A’s proposed development at Howard Terminal (previously estimated as generating $495 million between city and county funds), with no tax money redirected from the surrounding neighborhood (previously estimated at $360 million). Fifteen percent of new housing units from the A’s development would need to be “affordable,” with an equal amount of offsite affordable housing either built or preserved, up from the 0% Fisher was offering. And the A’s would agree to a 25-year non-relocation pact, up from the 20 years Fisher was offering but down from the 45 years Oakland officials had wanted.
  • A couple of hours later, A’s president Dave Kaval declared that the city’s offer was unacceptable, saying that “what was released today does not work for the A’s” and that for the council to vote yes on the revised term sheet “would really be a no on that project.” If there’s no change in the city’s offer before tomorrow, Kaval warned, “that would really foreclose our last opportunity in Oakland. We’re down to our last at-bat, our last location, and it would really put or build additional momentum in places like Southern Nevada, where we have this parallel path going, to see if we have an opportunity there that works for the club.”
  • A’s GM and minority owner Billy Beane rattled even more move-threat sabers, saying that at the Las Vegas Aviators’ Triple-A stadium, “the facilities here are better than we have in Oakland,” and that “our guys get sent down to AAA, they are actually going up in terms of the playing of the stadium and so it’s really an amazing, amazing place.” (The Las Vegas Ballpark, naming rights sponsor TK [oh duh, no it’s not, see comments], holds 10,000 fans, though maybe it has a really nice weight room or something.)
  • Over in Nevada, elected officials told the Nevada Independent that talks there with the A’s are preliminary at best. Clark County Commission chair Marilyn Kirkpatrick said she had only had a “meet and greet” with team execs, and cautioned that “I don’t think we can fund what they might be asking for”; a spokesperson for Henderson City Manager Richard Derrick said he had had two meetings with A’s officials, but these were “largely exploratory.”
  • At least some A’s fans found by the San Jose Mercury News started to freak out that the A’s will now move, or at least to be sadly resigned to that fate: “It’s frustrating, I’m upset, I’m angry, I’m sad,” one fan told the paper, while others said they blamed the A’s owners, or the city, or both the A’s owners and the city, for not getting a deal done.

I actually happened to be at Saturday’s A’s game, and was surprised not to see more signs protesting the threatened move, though it’s possible Oakland fans have just been through this so many times that most can’t be bothered to get enraged. (I also noticed that a remarkably large share of A’s jerseys worn by fans had their own names on the back, which is a reasonable adaptation to seeing all the team’s best players traded every couple of years.) The crowd was smallish but boisterous as on my past visits, with everyone twirling their giveaway “Ride The Wave” shirts as the A’s mounted a 9th-inning comeback that fell short; at least the team management had the good taste not to use their other slogan, “Rooted in Oakland,” on the shirts, though there was still lots of signage and souvenir mugs for sale reading that, move-threat sabers nothwithstanding.

So, context and analysis, in brief: Fisher and Kaval asked for $855 million and to be exempted from state affordable housing requirements, Oakland came back with $495 million and no affordable housing exemption, and Kaval said, Well in that case, Las Vegas is lovely this time of year. [Ed. Note: Fact-check this.]

This is what’s called a showdown, and no matter how the council votes on Tuesday,  this game of chicken is likely to stretch well beyond that, because both sides have way too much at stake for a quick resolution. If Oakland officials don’t back down enough in the next 24 hours for Fisher and Kaval to give their blessing, A’s execs can be expected to start talking seriously about how to fund a stadium in Las Vegas — or, as things have typically gone in the past, talking about talking seriously about it, in hopes that it will scare Oakland into upping their ante.

If history is any guide, it is extremely likely that this will end with some sort of compromise where Oakland offers that $495 million plus some free land or additional tax breaks or cheesy bread, and Fisher and Kaval grudgingly accept it as the bare minimum they will put up with. (This outcome is doubly likely given that it’s hard to conceive of Las Vegas, or Henderson or Portland or Thunder Bay or wherever, coming up with more than $495 million plus cheesy bread, even without getting into how those places are all much smaller TV markets.) Getting to that point will likely take a while, though — you don’t squeeze every last dollar out of your negotiating adversary without pulling every arrow out of your quiver — so the smart money would be on this dragging out quite a bit longer, and getting quite a bit uglier. If there end up being 2022 Las Vegas A’s cards, please save me a set.

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Former Giants exec: Lurie’s Florida move threat was just to shake loose a buyer in SF

The San Jose Mercury News has a long interview with former San Francisco Giants exec (and before that press secretary to the mayor of San Francisco; funny how that revolving door works) Corey Busch about whether the Oakland A’s will actually move out of the Bay Area, and frankly that part is less newsworthy, because how would Busch know, really? But it does venture into some history from Busch’s time with the Giants, and there’s where it starts to get interesting:

In 1992, Lurie and the rest of ownership came to an agreement to sell the team for $115 million to a group from the Tampa area. The Giants would move to Florida for the 1993 season, and Bay Area fans were slapped with a reality check.

“What we were trying to do was let people in the Bay Area know that people need to step up and buy the team,” Busch said. “And that’s exactly what happened.”

Safeway magnate Peter Magowan swooped in and bought the team, which eventually led to a waterfront ballpark “with Lurie’s fingerprints all over it.”

Even if the Tampa agreement sped up the offer from Magowan, Busch regrets the message it sent.

“It was a mistake to threaten to leave,” Busch says now. “That was something we learned. We didn’t see it at the time as making a threat. We thought we were just letting the market know, ‘Look, we can’t stay at Candlestick forever.’ And if something doesn’t happen, the team is going to leave.”

Was Lurie actually going to send the Giants to Tampa?

“No,” Busch said. “No one was willing to come forward to buy the Giants until it looked like they might leave. I never thought the Giants were going to leave the Bay Area.”

That’s not exactly saying that Lurie’s move threat was a hoax, along the lines of other leverage plays in the past; Busch could just be saying that he never thought the Giants would leave because he figured a local buyer would step up, and knew Lurie preferred that. Still, this is pretty remarkable: Though the Giants-to-Florida gambit was portrayed at the time as Lurie being blocked from moving to Tampa Bay by the other owners and instead settling for selling to a local owner who would build a stadium mostly with his own money, it turns out to have been more of a leverage move, where Lurie knew that MLB would prefer to keep the team in San Francisco, and knew that if he played footsie with Florida the league would help find him a local buyer to make it happen.

Of course, Busch could always be trying to make Lurie (and himself) look good in retrospect, just as Mario Lemieux could have been fibbing about his trips to Kansas City really being just to have lunch and shake loose arena money in Pittsburgh. I guess being an extortionist looks better than being a carpetbagger? I’ll have to check the Big Book of Capitalist Morals.

A’s stadium czar Dave Kaval, meanwhile, is still out on the hustings, doubling down on his now-infamous Vegas tweet by telling a radio show host on Friday that “we’re on parallel paths here,” seeking a waterfront ballpark in Oakland while “we’ve also been directed by the league to explore other markets, specifically Southern Nevada and Las Vegas.” Perhaps the league also bought Kaval those Vegas Golden Knights playoff tickets? Being able to claim to be doing the bidding of extortioners is definitely a preferred look; for both Lurie and Kaval, it sure has come in handy to have a Bigger Bad around to pull the strings, or pretend to, when you as owner can’t or don’t want to.

Back to Busch, he also thinks that the A’s should reconsider the Oakland Coliseum site, calling the idea that it won’t work “silly” and “nonsense” and saying it’s “inevitable” that the team will end up in a new stadium there. This is definitely a common take, since the Coliseum site wouldn’t require $855 million in infrastructure work to make it accessible by both roads and public transit, but Kaval & Co. keep rejecting it. Whether that’s their legitimate conviction or just yet another leverage move is impossible to say — but if there’s one important takeaway from Busch’s interview, it’s that sports team owners will lie to your face and happily admit later that it was all just standard business practice.

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