Friday roundup: KC pol seeks to revive sales tax hike for Chiefs only, A’s stadium plans still extremely ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

This has been a week, for a lot of reasons as well as my trip yesterday to an unseasonably hot Philadelphia to talk with city council staff and community members about the 76ersmuch-unloved arena plans, so I’m declaring editorial privilege to go straight to an abbreviated news roundup:

That’s all I have in me today — if I missed anything, feel free to bring it up in comments. Have a good weekend, and try to stay cool!

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Was defeat of Royals/Chiefs stadium tax hike Frank White’s fault, or to Frank White’s credit?

While we await Chicago Bears stadium plan details, let’s kill some time reading Monday’s Kansas City Star article on “what went wrong in Jackson County” that led to the overwhelming April 2 vote against a 0.375% sales-tax hike to funnel money to Royals and Chiefs stadium projects.

(And yes, “what went wrong” is very much a leading framing, since it implies that Jackson County residents expressing their opinion that they didn’t want to kick back $500 million in sales taxes en route to well over a billion dollars in public stadium is a bad outcome. But let’s not hold the article responsible for the headline’s crimes, and just see where it goes.)

Kansas City Manager Brian Platt offered reassurance last week as the teams consider next steps. The city will take a lead role from here on in trying to keep the teams happy, by learning from others’ mistakes…

“We were largely on the sidelines, on the city side, for a lot of this,” Platt said. “And we are going to take a much more active and proactive role in making sure that whatever comes next, we are a big part of it. And that we’re listening to all the voices that need to be heard.”

Not a great start: “Reassurance” implies that KC residents want a different jurisdiction to take over that isn’t as skeptical of the teams’ demands, which doesn’t appear to be what the voting results show at all.

Emails obtained by the Star between the county and the team reveal what was said behind the scenes, and ultimately how the talks broke down.

Internal emails! Now we’re talking.

Let’s see, blah blah, Platt “re-enforced the narrative” that Jackson County executive and former Royals second baseman Frank White “bargained in bad faith” — no, that’s you re-enforcing the narrative, and also it’s actually “reinforcing” — and “the teams cast White as a villain.” Where are these emails already? “The blame game will go on.” This article sure does!

Okay, now we’re talking:

The Star has obtained correspondence between the Royals and White’s administration that shows the arc of the negotiations…

[In May 2023,] two Clay County commissioners and the mayor of North Kansas City posted an open letter on X, formerly Twitter, saying that not only were they willing to make an offer for the team, but that the Royals were interested.

White saw that as an insult to Jackson County taxpayers and fired off a letter to Sherman that day. … “Given today’s unfortunate developments, I urge the Royals to publicly reaffirm their commitment to Jackson County until at least 2031 and voice their intention to continue calling Jackson County home for decades beyond.”

Ignoring White’s ultimatum, the Royals issued a public statement saying that the team had not yet decided where it was headed but “continue(d) to be actively engaged” in talks with Jackson County, as well as others.

Not really news that this is how it went down, but it’s at least new documents. Tell us more!

Brooks Sherman, the [Royals] president of business operations, said the team envisioned that the cost of building a new ballpark would be shared by county taxpayers, the team, Kansas City and the state of Missouri, but left out a crucial detail. What it didn’t say was exactly how much the $1 billion-plus ballpark was expected to cost, or how much each party would be expected to contribute to the project.

Again, this isn’t news, as it had been clear for months before that that Royals owner John Sherman didn’t want to specify how his stadium was going to be paid for, except that the first $250 million or so would come from the sales tax hike. But sure, here’s an email showing that team execs were saying the same thing privately as publicly.

[Jackson County counselor Bryan] Covinsky said the county needed more information before face-to-face talks began, such as how much money the team expected to receive from the city and state, as well as any tax incentives the Royals might pursue on the commercial ballpark village development the team proposed building around a new ballpark.

Okay, let’s skip ahead: Is there anything in these emails that we didn’t already know from public statements? And what does it all have to do with the role of Frank White, as promised by the lede? We have White requesting only a 20-year sales tax hike instead of 40 years, which we also knew already, and Royals execs saying nope nope, and more talks, and Sherman agreeing to at least cover property and casualty insurance on their new stadium, and finally both teams saying they’re going ahead with the April 2 vote regardless of what White wanted. And then got their heads handed to them at the ballot box.

The only thing new here, then, is the framing: Both White and the team owners are presented as having screwed up by failing to get a deal agreed on before sending it to a public vote, which then led to referendum being defeated.

But there is another way of looking at this, which is that White stood his ground in refusing to give in to the teams’ demands (though he did offer up as much as $300 million in public money for each stadium, and didn’t rule out city and state money being used as well so long as it wasn’t coming out of his jurisdiction’s pocket), and the teams tried to get what they wanted by going around him directly to county voters, who likewise told them to kick rocks. That’s not a failure so much as tough negotiating — and if the teams now come back with reduced subsidy demands, it’s a success.

Of course, stories like this one in the Star that cast responsible governance as “getting things done” when the things are making it a spending priority to meet the wish lists of local sports billionaires only make it harder to negotiate toughly, since it throws shade on elected officials who do so. The Star has generally done pretty good reporting on the whole Kansas City stadium saga so far; if Platt is indeed taking the lead in talks, let’s see how the newspaper portrays his role, and if they chide him if he gives in too far to the owners, or only if he doesn’t give in enough.

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Friday roundup: Nevada legislator says she voted for A’s stadium because she didn’t understand it, and other great moments in U.S. politics

Before we get to the week’s news roundup, a couple of programming notes. First off, my apologies for the ads that have kept appearing in the middle of posts on this site — I keep telling Google Ads not to put them there, and it keeps ignoring me. I think I may have finally succeeded in turning those off, but do let me know if they reappear for you. I may end up dropping Google as this site’s ad provider if it keeps this up — that is, if I don’t drop Google anyway for firing workers upset that it successfully created Project Nimbus from the famous science fiction novel Don’t Create Project Nimbus.

Second, I know that the Dark Mode function is pretty broken again, often displaying dark gray type on a black background. I’m in discussions with the plugin provider about bug fixes, and also once again looking for alternatives that work more consistently. In the meantime, you can sometimes get it working by refreshing your browser; if that doesn’t work, just don’t use Dark Mode for now, and hopefully everything will be back in working order before your eyeballs explode from the screen glare.

And now for the news:

  • Nevada assemblymember Danielle Gallant tried, despite a very unhappy dog in the background, to explain her vote last summer for $600 million in public money for a new stadium to bring the Oakland A’s to Las Vegas, and ended up having to apologize for not understanding how the financing worked at all. “I hope future errors you make are met with more kindness than some of the responses I received,” tweeted Gallant, presumably inviting those among you who haven’t accidentally given $600 million to a billionaire sports owner to cast the first stone.
  • Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who previously praised Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s proposed stadium development that would require $2 billion in public subsidies and said “everything is on the table here,” now says that some things are off the table: “I’ve always said that ownership has to put some skin in the game,” Johnson told reporters this week, adding that he opposes kickbacks of city ticket taxes to Reinsdorf to help fund the project.
  • If you’re a Buffalo Bills fan outraged that the team is charging as much as $50,000 for personal seat licenses before you can even buy tickets to their new stadium that is being built with over $1 billion in your tax money, good news: Now you can instead be upset about the fact that Gov. Kathy Hochul agreed to make the PSLs exempt from sales tax, costing you and your fellow New Yorkers around another $25 million. Or I suppose you can be upset about both, but life is short, you have to pick your priorities.
  • Tampa Bay Times opinion editor Graham Brink, who previously defended spending $1.5 billion in public money on a new Tampa Bay Rays stadium on the grounds of “collective pride,” is now back with a list of other ways it would allegedly be a good deal: extending the Rays’ lease will keep the team in town longer, their development partner is “the real deal,” they’re using stadium designers who’ve designed stadiums before, owner Stu Sternberg has an “astute front office,” and … that’s all he’s got so far, stay tuned for “Economists may say Rays stadium is a boondoggle, but aren’t puppies great?”
  • Meanwhile, if you ask St. Petersburg residents if $1.9 billion is too much to spend on a Rays stadium, they say yes, and if you ask them if a new stadium would be a good idea in the abstract without telling them how much it would cost, they also say yes! The truth must lie somewhere in the middle!
  • Where will the Kansas City Royals and Chiefs owners turn for stadium money now that voters told them where to stick their sales tax hike? “It’s not something that’s going to just kind of be thrown up into the ether out of nowhere,” says Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas of city funding, and a spokesperson for Gov. Mike Parson says there’s no state money in the works either. Clay County Presiding Commissioner Jerry Nolte says he hasn’t heard from Royals execs lately, and there’s no talk of fresh funding from Jackson County after the sales-tax plan failed, which leaves only … the team owners’ pockets? KMBC-TV for some reason doesn’t mention this option in their article, the internet must have run out of bits before they got to it. The Kansas City Star, meanwhile, reported on noted sports business expert George Brett’s thoughts on whether the teams will now move out of town, it’s truly not a great week for Kansas City journalism.
  • Now that the Arizona Coyotes are moving to Salt Lake City in the fall, everyone wants to know what the team will be called, and new owner Ryan Smith confirms that it will “start with Utah.” No word yet on what it will rhyme with or how many syllables, but presumably Smith will reveal that eventually — just maybe not this fall, don’t want to rush into things, “Utah Professional Hockey Club” sure has a nice temporary ring to it.
  • Tempe city councilmember Randy Keating has complained that the reason the Coyotes are leaving town is because team execs “ran a terribly inept campaign” for arena subsidies. Better luck next time finding ways to overcome massive public opposition, Randy, there’s got to be a way around this whole “democracy” thing.
  • A’s concessionaire Aramark threatened to fire stadium workers who openly criticize the team’s coming move out of Oakland, which turns out to be a violation of labor law, who could have known?
  • This Ringer article on fan opposition to the A’s departure is really long for anyone who already knows the basics, but its deep dive into the history of fan protest movements does quote Field of Schemes and also includes the priceless quote from Oakland activist Bryan Johansen that his goal is “to fucking haunt John Fisher for all of eternity,” so it’s worth it if you have the time.
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Friday roundup: NYC approves $780m NYCFC stadium in Queens, still doesn’t know what it’ll cost the public

I keep meaning to find a place to mention it, and here is as good as any: sports economists J.C. Bradbury, Dennis Coates, and Brad Humphreys have taken up the task of updating Judith Grant Long’s epic database of stadium and arena deals, and the results are online as a CSV file. There are likely still going to be some debates about specific figures — the Buffalo Bills stadium is listed with an $850 million public cost, for example, because that’s what the New York Times said, but that leaves out state and county money set aside for future maintenance and upgrades — but it’s still a hugely useful resource for getting ballpark estimates (sorry) of both total and taxpayer costs. Bookmark it now, or just click the “Data” tab here anytime to find it!

That’s enough about that, let’s get to the news, oh the news, so very much the news:

  • The New York city council approved NYC F.C.‘s plan to build a Queens stadium across the street from the Mets‘ stadium, which is expected to cost $780 million and open in 2027. While construction costs are being covered by the team’s owners, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, it’s still unknown exactly how much the city will be giving up in property-tax breaks and discounted rent (the city Independent Budget Office estimated $516 million) or how much the city will be spending on infrastructure for the project (which includes housing and other stuff too, so it’d be tricky to determine exactly how much of infrastructure costs should be charged to the stadium). Ah well, plenty of time to figure that out after the agreements are all signed! Queens councilmember Shekar Krishnan cast the only dissenting vote, declaring, “We are not facing a stadium crisis in this city. We are facing a housing crisis, an inequality crisis and a climate crisis. Now we’re looking at a proposal that gives away public land worth hundreds of millions of dollars in public financing for a commercial soccer stadium. What is the benefit for the people of New York City?” You mean the joy of visiting Naming Rights Sponsor Stadium isn’t enough?
  • Patrick Tuohey of the Show-Me Institute wants to know what happened to the 2022 Populous study of the Kansas City Royals‘ stadium that projected it would cost more to repair than replace, thanks to “concrete cancer,” since it’s been taken down from the KC Ballpark District website. Good news and bad news, Patrick: The report is still there on the Wayback Machine, but it provides no sourcing at all for its figures. It does print them in very large type, though, and how could anything in a 48-point font be wrong?
  • Jackson County legislator Sean Smith polled his constituents about why they voted how they did on the Royals and Chiefs stadium tax surcharge referendum last week, and determined it’s because nobody listened to their concerns and engaged in too much “fear-based campaigning” by threatening the teams would leave. Smith didn’t release any detailed results of his survey, though, so it’s left as an exercise for the reader to imagine what the public’s concerns were, exactly.
  • Adding insult to injury department: Workers for the Oakland A’s weren’t told by team management that the franchise was relocating to Sacramento next year and that they would all be laid off as a result, they saw it on the TV news. “Thank you for ruining our lives,” said one A’s bartender only identified by CBS Sports as Tony. (Also, the layoffs have reportedly already begun, because John Fisher has clearly determined you don’t need concessions workers when you’ve so effectively alienated your fans that no one will come to your games.)
  • The Atlanta Braves claim that a new survey found their stadium-in-the-middle-of-suburban-nowhere ranks 13th out of 30 teams in “walkability,” and we don’t even need to debate whether it’s a dumb survey because it turns out 13th actually means 21st because it turns out the dumb survey people don’t know how to break ties.
  • “Can Minor League Baseball Survive Its Real Estate Problems?” asks the New York Times, but those problems were created by MLB when it bought and contracted the minor leagues and then forced cities to scramble to upgrade stadiums to avoid being left without a chair when the music stopped. Try to keep up, New York Times! Even without a sports department!
  • D.C. United wants to build a stadium for a minor-league affiliate in Baltimore, and the Baltimore Banner article on how “there hasn’t been enough information shared about the project” doesn’t even try to ask how much it would cost or who would pay for it, this has not been a great week for journalism. Here are some tips, guys, start with those!
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Will the Kansas City Chiefs move to Greensboro? An investimagation

One of the main themes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Royalsnow-failed stadium sales-tax subsidy campaign was that if it didn’t pass, the teams would have to “consider our options,” as Chiefs owner Clark Hunt put it. So naturally, the media has been all abuzz the last two days with articles wondering if the teams will move — or at least whether the Chiefs will move, presumably since nobody gets that excited about the Royals, who have gotten off to a head start on an eighth straight losing season. And the media being the media, some of the headlines haven’t skimped on the alarmism:

The actual news here, though, is awfully thin. Yes, the Chiefs’ lease expires in 2031, after which the team could theoretically move if Hunt can find a more lucrative place to move to. Yes, Ron Ryckman Jr., whose Twitter handle is still “Speaker Ryckman” even though he retired as Kansas House speaker last fall, texted the Kansas City Star that “Jackson County fumbled. Now there will be a mad scramble for the ball and we’re in the best position for a scoop and score,” pointing to a state fund from sports betting proceeds that currently has $4.1 million in it as evidence that “Kansas taxpayers will see minimal costs” from any new Chiefs stadium. And yes, the mayor of Dallas posted a somewhat tongue-in-cheek “Welcome home, Dallas Texans!” tweet following the vote, saying, “our market is big enough, growing enough, and loves football more than enough to support a second NFL team.” (Greensboro officials have so far remained coyly silent.)

So, politicians gonna grandstand, sure. But are the Chiefs really likely to go anywhere? To his credit, the Associated Press’s David Lieb looked at how this has historically worked out after team owners lose tax subsidy votes, and found typically they just stick around and try to shake down local elected officials some other way:

“Usually, team owners just find a new way to get money, and they’ll go the legislative route,” said Geoffrey Propheter, an associate public finance professor at the University of Colorado Denver. “Rarely do team owners just straight up leave.” …

After losing elections, some teams subsequently sidestep voters to get new stadiums.

In 1997, voters in 11 southwestern Pennsylvania counties rejected a proposed half-cent sales tax to replace a stadium shared by the MLB’s Pirates and NFL’s Steelers with two separate facilities and to fund a convention center expansion. But the next year, a regional development district approved public financing for the new facilities without going back to voters.

Similar scenarios played out elsewhere in the mid-1990s. When voters in King County, Washington, rejected a tax plan for a Seattle Mariners ballpark, owners threatened to put the team up for sale. Within a month, state lawmakers authorized a new financing plan for a new baseball stadium.

After Wisconsin voters rejected a sports lottery for a new Milwaukee Brewers ballpark, the state legislature authorized a regional sales tax to help pay for it.

And so on. Sure, there are counterexamples — Lieb mentions the San Diego Chargers moving to Los Angeles after a stadium funding referendum there went down to defeat. And it’s always worth noting that relocations are somewhat easier in the NFL, since it’s less of a challenge to find cities where you can sell out just eight home games a year, plus so much of teams’ revenue comes from national TV money that flows in regardless of where you play. But history shows that when team owners are denied subsidies at the ballot box, they try, try again — sometimes, as in the case of the San Francisco Giants, eventually deciding to build a stadium without a ton of public funds.

So far, officials in Jackson County seem amenable to negotiating a deal with the Chiefs and Royals owners that doesn’t suck quite so hard for the public, though it’s open to interpretation whether that means one that costs less public money or just one where the team owners are clear up front about exactly how much they’re asking for. But turning one mayor and one ex-legislator’s statements that, sure, they would love to host the Chiefs into an “uncertain future” is bad journalism — unless you see journalism’s job as being part of a “growth coalition” to get whatever local business leaders want done, in which case, fine job, Washington Post.

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Browns public stadium subsidy could cost Cleveland 93 playgrounds or 39 public pools

Journalists! Yes, you, those lucky few who’ve so far survived the journapocalypse and are still allowed to cover anything other than press releases and viral videos. (“Few” may be an overstatement, I realize.) Here’s an idea for a way to approach public spending demands for stadiums, courtesy of the Cleveland Plain Dealer: Take a look at what else local government could buy with the money.

In the case of the Browns‘ stadium demands, the PD went with an estimate of $300 million in taxpayer cash, which it says “falls within the ballpark of recent public spending on stadiums and arenas in our region” — it’s actually way low for public stadium spending in recent years, which has frequently topped $1 billion, and the Browns owners themselves last year pitched a plan that would use at least $500 million in tax money. But sure, $300 million, what else could Clevelanders get for that?

  • Fund its entire parks department for the next 16 years.
  • Build 93 new playgrounds.
  • Build eight new neighborhood recreation centers.
  • Build 39 swimming pools.
  • Add new basketball courts and ice rinks to every park in the city.

That’s only a small and very parks-oriented list, and leaves out lots of other options: How much teachers could Cleveland hire, or how much public transit could it build, or how much could it rebate taxes to local residents? Those would all be interesting to see as well, and I certainly would have asked for some examples like these if I’d been editing this piece.

But the bigger point is that examples matter. Big numbers break our brains, so “93 new playgrounds” is a lot easier for most people to conceptualize than “$300 million.” Without examples like this, readers are way too likely to fall back on cognitive biases like anchoring, which can make big spending asks seem more reasonable since they’re not as bad as they could be, or not as bad as the one down the road.

And giving spending comparisons is useful in another way: It reminds people that money is fungible. Not every city uses revenue streams that if not used for stadiums would otherwise go to playgrounds — but it could, because it’s within the power of city councils (or state legislatures) to funnel money wherever they want in almost all cases. So even setting aside the cases where sports subsidies are directly extracted from school budgets, every spending choice is a choice, and like all choices it precludes other choices, and that’s worth reminding people.

This might seem like a lot of praise to heap on a quick throwaway article — but the fact that this didn’t require the PD to spend a ton of time on investigative digging is precisely the point. As I seem to explain every time I do a media interview, Joanna Cagan and I got into this project because my home city of New York was looking at building a new Yankees stadium while closing libraries to save on budget, while her home city of Cleveland was looking to build, yep, what became the current Browns stadium at the same time as its school system was in receivership. While it’s fun to rail against the unfairness of handing public money to billionaires, the unstated corollary there is “when non-billionaires could use it better.” If counting stadium costs in units of playgrounds not built is a quick and easy way for our nation’s dwindling number of increasingly time-starved journalists to drive that point home, it’s an exercise worth doing.

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Lies, damn lies, and stadium subsidy justifications

Lots of news happening this week, including Jackson County releasing really confusing ballot language for its Kansas City Royals and Chiefs sales tax referendum and the Chicago Bears social media department accidentally confusing fans about their stadium plans with a bad play on words. And maybe we’ll get to those later, but right now I need to spend some time looking at the ways in which the media all too often amplify the absolute dumbest team owner arguments for demanding public subsidies. None of this is new — Joanna Cagan and I were writing about it 25 years ago — but it’s all the more important precisely because news outlets keep on repeating these claims, despite two decades and counting of evidence that they’re all hogwash.

First up is Alexandria Living magazine, which ran an article on Monday under the headline “Monumental Arena Expected to Pay for Itself, City Officials Say.” The accompanying story explained that even though the legislation for a new Washington Capitals and Wizards arena development says the city can tap any available tax money to pay off the $1.5 billion in public bonds, “the Sports and Entertainment District is structured to be self-funding, according to city officials, and may even contribute additional funds to the city as a whole.” quoting financial consultant James Sanderson as saying tax money collected from the arena district will be “more than sufficient to repay the debt” and those tax revenues “don’t exist without the project itself.”

The first red flag here is “officials say”: Much like it’s bad journalism to take police reports at their word, basing your report entirely on the claims of politicians who support a project is media malpractice. (The second red flag is “financial consultant”: Sanderson turns out to work for an investment firm, and he’s a lawyer with a bachelor’s degree in architecture, with no economic training.) There’s nothing wrong with reporting what elected officials or even unelected consultants are saying, but they shouldn’t be allowed to craft the narrative of your story, let alone the headlines that will be all that many people will read during their morning doom scrolls.

And the central claim here — that tax revenues from a new development don’t exist if the project isn’t built — is fundamentally wrong, as any economist could have told the magazine’s writers if they’d bothered to call one. For starters, there’s the substitution effect, which is the principle that if people spend money in one place, they’re not spending it someplace else, so a lot of that tax money would have been collected elsewhere in the city or the state if Virginians had done something else with their evenings rather than go see a Caps or Wizards game. (Some would be cannibalized from across the river in D.C., certainly, but not all of it.) And then there’s also the but-for problem, which is that the idea this is all free tax revenue assumes that nothing would be built on the site without the public spending, which is also flagrantly untrue:

But then, this is the whole point of tax increment financing: Not to come up with clever ways of funding projects without tapping public dollars, but rather to come up with clever ways of using public dollars while claiming you’re not. Anyone reading the words “Monumental Arena Expected to Pay for Itself” would reasonably expect that this means an Alexandria arena won’t use money that local government would otherwise have available to spend on other things like schools and health care, but it absolutely will.

For Exhibit #2, we turn to Fansided’s Kansas City sports blog KC Kingdom, which features the equally clickbaity headline “Why a New Royals Stadium Will Help KC Win a World Series.” “There is an underrated reason why a new stadium for the Royals will help the organization win a World Series, and fans should be thrilled to hear it,” begins the post, going on to explain that “the Royals are usually in the bottom third of the league in terms of payroll” but that could change with a new stadium, as the four MLB teams to most recently open new stadiums (the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, and Minnesota Twins) all saw upticks in player spending in the years that followed.

Props to KC Kingdom for doing some original research — there’s even a chart! — but unfortunately it makes some basic logical errors. First off, showing that player spending goes up after a new stadium opens isn’t by itself evidence of anything: Player spending goes up every year across all of MLB, so a team could easily increase its payroll and still just be running in place relative to its competitors. Also, not all of the teams cited are really good comparables to the Royals: While both the Braves and Rangers have won World Series recently, they’re both relatively big market teams that were among the league’s top spenders even in their previous stadiums, making a combined seven World Series appearances between 1991 and 2011. (It’s also worth noting that the Royals themselves made it to two World Series just in the last decade, winning one of them.)

That said, there is a kernel of truth to the idea that new stadiums mean more spending, but it’s not because “a new stadium will bring in revenue and pressure for Owner John Sherman to spend money on talent,” like the article suggests. John Sherman is a billionaire, and could always spend on bringing in talent if he wanted to. What would change with a new stadium at an estimated $1.4 billion public cost wouldn’t be access to cash, but the rewards available for spending: Before a new stadium, team owners have an incentive to lowball payroll in an effort to convince fans (and sports bloggers) that the team needs a stadium to be able to put a winning team on the first; afterwards, when you have shiny new seats to sell at shiny new prices, investing in a pitching staff that fans might actually want to pay to see instead of the modern record holder for most career innings pitched with a negative Wins Above Replacement starts to seem like a better idea.

How much do teams actually improve after a new stadium opens? As it so happens, I wrote a whole book chapter that addressed this back in 2006, for the Baseball Prospectus book Baseball Behind the Numbers. And in there, I reported that for all MLB teams opening new stadiums from 1991 to 2005, “a new ballpark [was] worth about 5.5 wins a year.”* That’s not nothing, but as I also wrote at the time, “a $500 million stadium is an awfully expensive way to pick up five and a half games in the standings,” and it would arguably be cheaper for taxpayers just to buy the team a new starting pitcher.

This may seem like a lot of words to devote to picking on a local magazine and a sports blog, but they’re just the latest examples of execrable reporting on sports subsidy deals that shows up everywhere, including The New York Times. And both of these false arguments — stadiums and arenas can pay for themselves, and they’re needed for teams to be competitive on the field — are key items in the sports subsidy playbook: #3 (Leveling the Playing Field) and #4 (Playing the Numbers), as we laid out in “The Art of the Steal,” Chapter 4 of Field of Schemes. Sports owners gonna sports owner, but that doesn’t mean sports writers need to take their claims at face value. If you’re wondering why 58% of voter referendums to fund stadiums and arenas with public money are successful, keep in mind that team owners and their political allies are still able to control much of the media coverage, and bad headlines lead to ill-informed decisions at the ballot box.

*UPDATE: Turns out J.C. Bradbury did a more comprehensive study on the effect of new stadiums on winning percentages earlier this year, and the impact is more like zero:

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Alexandria mayor claims Caps/Wizards arena plan ‘minimizes the risk’ for taxpayers despite all evidence to the contrary

If there’s one kind of article that I wish could be banned from all news outlets, it’s the single-source stenography piece. This happens when someone Important, usually an elected official but sometimes just a rich guy, opens their mouth and says things, and a reporter transcribes it all and puts it into print without asking questions like “Is this true?” and “Am I just being used as a propaganda tool?”

We had a couple of those yesterday, and they contain all the bad hallmarks of the genre. Washington, D.C.’s WTOP ran one titled “Alexandria mayor says funding plan for Wizards, Capitals arena at Potomac Yard ‘minimizes the risk’ for taxpayers,” which is an accurate headline in that, yes, Alexandria Mayor Justin Wilson did indeed say that. How does it do that, according to the mayor?

Wilson told WTOP that Monumental Sports and Entertainment, which owns the sports franchises, will pay a “significant private investment upfront, and ongoing rent that is paid for by the private sports teams, by Monumental.”

The rest of the project’s cost will be covered by tax revenue generated by the complex itself…

“It’s a model that minimizes the risk on the taxpayers, both the state and the city, and helps drive economic growth in Potomac Yard, which is ultimately what we’re trying to do,” Wilson said.

That’s just tax-increment financing, and it doesn’t minimize risk at all. The tax revenue generated at the Capitals and Wizards arena complex would be going toward paying off $1.05 billion worth of bonds, and Virginia taxpayers would be on the hook for that money (plus about $300 million in other expenses) regardless of how much tax revenue came in. As Good Jobs First relates in its TIF explainer, such “underwater” TIFs are distressingly common:

Sometimes, TIF projects fail to maintain enough incremental tax revenue to pay the debt service. This can happen because a recession arrives, causing the property’s value to decline (and enabling the developer to appeal for a lower tax assessment).

It can also happen because a project was inherently flawed. A feasibility study may have overestimated market trends or future rent rates. A corporation may have overstated its likely future growth. Or a retailer may downsize or go bankrupt due to new competition from e-commerce.

When a debt-service TIF goes underwater, if the bond is not a general obligation, the city is not legally obligated to cover the shortfall. But in reality, cities rarely allow TIF bonds to default. So a TIF can become a drain on a city’s general fund.  At one point in the Great Recession, Kansas City had six underwater TIF districts.

And even when the TIF money is enough to pay off the bonds, Good Jobs points out that’s still money being siphoned off from other needs, even as the new development creates new costs for taxpayers:

The treasurer of Adams County, Colorado, once denounced a $26.9 million TIF for a big box retail project, “without a penny [of it] accruing to the county.” He pointed out that if a murder occurs at the mall, the county coroner, county district attorney, county sheriff, county jail, and county court would all incur expenses, none of them supported by the TIF district.

A more accurate article would have pointed out some of this, or maybe even called someone at Good Jobs First for comment, since they’re right there in D.C. And a more accurate headline would have been “Alexandria mayor claims Caps/Wizards arena plan ‘minimizes the risk’ for taxpayers despite all evidence to the contrary,” actually, that’s good, I’m using that.

Bad article #2 is from Kansas City’s NPR station KCUR, and is headlined “Kansas City mayor says answers about new Royals stadium should come soon.” Does he now? What did he actually say?

[Kansas City Mayor Quinton] Lucas told KCUR’s Up To Date that he expects “final deals and arrangements” in the days ahead in order to meet that end-of-month deadline.

“There is active work in a number of different jurisdictions engaged —including the city of Kansas City — because any big investment in a part of our city will require zoning conversations as well as probably incentive discussions,” Lucas said. “That is something that I think gets decided soon. Then, I think we can put this issue to bed.”

There is a smidge of actual reporting in this one, in that the Jackson County Legislature needs to act by January 23 if it wants to put an extension of the county’s 0.375% sales tax surcharge to raise money for Royals and Chiefs stadium projects on the April ballot. But otherwise, this is just “mayor promises stuff will get done soon,” which is some extremely weak sauce as an excuse for running an article — especially when there are tons of important questions reporters could be researching, like whether Royals owner John Sherman would really move the team to a neighboring county without that tax subsidy, and whether that would actually be worse for Jackson County than hiking sales taxes and handing the proceeds to Sherman.

In short, it was a bad day for journalism, but then that’s most days these days. And when people are reading these articles, or at least glancing at the headlines, they’re getting the wrong idea about stadium and arena deals that they or their elected officials may have to be voting on. Everyone may make fun of the Washington Post’s “Democracy Dies in Darkness” slogan, but there’s a nugget of truth beneath the pomposity: Without good information, people can’t make good democratic decisions, and right now there’s alarmingly little work being done at too many media outlets to distinguish information from misinformation before throwing it all on the page and letting God sort it out.

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Friday roundup: Tempe faces probe for spying on arena opponents, WI trims Brewers subsidy ask to mere $557m, plus new adventures in logical fallacies

 

 

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Friday roundup: John Fisher Oakland conspiracython, plus OKC Thunder arena logic gets even weirder

Okay, so this first one needs more than a bullet point: Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle ran a long article this week on the possibility of Oakland getting an expansion team if the A’s leave, and how A’s owner John Fisher could salt the earth in his old city while moving to a new one. Ostler’s scenario: Fisher uses his option to buy the 50% of the Oakland Coliseum site currently owned by Alameda County to block a new team in Oakland from building there. Per Ostler, all Fisher needs to do to cement his purchase is to pay the remaining $45 million of the original $85 million purchase price, something that’s due within 180 days of the A’s “announcement of their relocation,” whatever that means.

Or! Given that Fisher needs a place for the A’s to play while waiting for his $1.5 billion Vegas dream house is ready, he could demand a sweetheart lease in exchange for not consummating the purchase, suggests Ostler, under threat of blocking development of the Coliseum site altogether.

And while we’re conspiracy-theorizing, “It’s possible that MLB leaked that Oakland expansion-team teaser in order to pressure Nashville politicians into offering more taxpayer assistance for a new ballpark in that city.” Sure, anything is possible!

“If this all seems convoluted and nutso, that’s because it is,” writes Ostler, and that, at least, is undeniably true. Spending $85 million to buy a piece of land you don’t want and can’t do anything with without partnering with the city you’re in the middle of abandoning seems like an idiotic move, but Fisher could certainly do it either 1) as a game of chicken with the city of Oakland to get what he wants, or 2) because he’s an idiot.

Ostler also notes that as of Tuesday, neither Fisher nor MLB has reached out to Oakland to discuss a lease extension beyond next year, and again, it’s hard to tell if this is them being crazy like a fox or just crazy. From the start nothing about this A’s Vegas move has made sense — well, other than Fisher extracting $600 million in tax money from the state of Nevada, that’s right out of the standard sports team owner playbook — and the endgame, if that’s what this is, only appears to be getting nuttier.

And with that, on to the shorter news items, if only marginally less nutty:

  • If anybody has a study claiming to show that the Oklahoma City Thunder create $600 million of economic impact, the people trying to factcheck Mayor David Holt’s public statements on Twitter would like to see it. Also, Holt’s own administration said in 2018 that the Thunder’s economic impact was only 10% of that, so WTH, David Holt?
  • Holt has also clarified that the 1% sales tax surcharge he wants to impose to provide $780 million toward a new Thunder arena, which he says wouldn’t increase taxes because it will just replace a similar tax surcharge used to pay for the MAPS project that funded the old arena, isn’t an old tax either because it’s not an “extension” of the expiring tax: “It’s the penny currently being utilized by the MAPS initiative. But some people will always call it MAPS because they call everything MAPS. It’s just not.” So it’s a new tax that doesn’t increase taxes because it replaces a different old tax that otherwise would have expired, but that’s not a tax increase because the new tax steps in as soon as the old one leaves — looks like somebody’s been studying their Felix Unger logic.
  • Pinellas County officials say they’re looking at providing $300 million in hotel-tax money toward a new Tampa Bay Rays stadium in St. Petersburg, with county administrator Barry Burton saying, “To be able to create the model, we had to put in something. That’s a reasonable number for plug number. Whether it’s up or down, it’s good for assumptions.” If that sounds like rather than determining what was reasonable in terms of either what the county can afford or how much a stadium would be worth to it, county commissioners picked the $300 million number because it’s half of the $600 million total public cost Rays owner Stu Sternberg wants, which is in turn half of the $1.2 billion stadium he says he wants, and “half” is about the roundest number available, you are very cynical and also probably right.
  • MLB owners are reportedly set to vote on approving the A’s move to Vegas in November, though it remains an open question what approval will mean if Fisher still doesn’t have a stadium plan finalized by then.
  • Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Jeff Gammage’s last article on the Philadelphia 76ers‘ arena plans may have gotten disappeared, but he’s still out there following the story, including reporting that the team is backing off from its end-of-2023 deadline for approval, as well as that this abomination has been driving around Philadelphia City Hall, presumably with an implied threat of “Approve our 76ers arena or else you have to hear this for the rest of your lives.”
  • Also backing off on deadlines: The owners of the Chicago Bears, who have said they won’t pursue state legislation granting them a property tax break on a new stadium site during this year’s legislative session. Oh, you guys, with the deciding what kind of stadium you want to build where before asking for money for it, John Fisher has a lot to teach you.
  • USA Today and The Tennessean are advertising for a Taylor Swift reporter and a Beyoncé reporter, and J.C. Bradbury has a theory.
  • I went on Battleground Wisconsin yesterday to talk about how Wisconsin officials are scrambling all over each other to offer money to Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio for stadium upgrades, and how it fits into the overall trends in baseball stadium skulduggery. You can listen to it here.
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