Philly mayor announces unspecified “agreement” on 76ers Chinatown arena, gets immediately piled on by Philadelphians

For months, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker has been hedging on her position on a new 76ers arena next door to her city’s Chinatown, most recently saying that keeping the team in town was “a priority,” but that “we have a process here in the city of Philadelphia that we are following, and we will allow it to play itself out.” Yesterday, that all changed, as Parker released a weirdly framed video declaring that “an agreement has been reached that will ensure that our Sixers are staying home”:

“I will be transmitting the related legislative package to our city council of Philadelphia for its consideration, where it must be approved. … This is an historic agreement. It is the best financial deal ever entered into by a Philadelphia mayor for a sports arena, and I wholeheartedly believe it is the right deal for the people of Philadelphia.”

Then Parker said she would have “a lot more to say in a forthcoming formal presentation,” and would hold town halls so that “the people have access to the facts.” Then she claimed the arena would create “hundreds of millions of dollars in new tax revenues” and “hundreds and hundreds of jobs,” and wrapped up without including any details of what is in this agreement or showing any of her math. (A previous report by the Sixers’ hired consultants projected $16.2 million a year in tax revenue for the city and school district, and was immediately jumped on by people with actual economics degrees as a load of hooey.)

What prompted Parker’s abrupt transformation into a 76ers arena stan is unclear, but public response was — unsurprisingly in a city where people oppose the plan by a more than 3-to-1 margin — overwhelmingly negative. Debbie Wei of the Save Chinatown Coalition wrote in a statement: “This fight is far from over. We are going to fight this, and we are going to the mat. It’s on.” And the reply thread to Parker’s video on Twitter was just brutal:

She said, “People of Chinatown, I hear you” while she was having secret, closed door meetings without them. — Andrew Lee

The same beer people will buy on Market St, they would have bought at Wells Fargo/Xfinity Live. She just became a multi millionaire with the kickbacks she’ll get from the unions. She’s a termite — Shaun

You’ll never be reelected again. Ruining Chinatown and separating the one of the sports teams all at once. Only doing this to get your pockets lined. Disgusting — Philly Sports Truther

Are you drunk? It would make sense because it would explain why you entered this ridiculous agreement. One term, Parker. — The Centryst

Why does this have the feel of a parody skit on SNL? — Brian Thuer

Actually fuck you for this. — PKSparkxx || #BlackLivesMatter

The last remaining obstacle to the arena going forward, it would appear, is now local councilmember Mark Squilla, who has been similarly wishy-washy to Mayor Parker up until now, saying first that he wouldn’t do anything that the neighborhood opposed but then pivoting to saying he’s “comfortable making that decision” on his own. Following Parker’s video statement, Squilla said only, “It’s up to us to look at that legislation and see if the proper safeguards are put in place, and if not, add those safeguards in place before an introduction can happen,” which translates as “yes, we are the city council, we consider legislation, that’s our job description.”

Next step is to see what new details, if any, Parker reveals in her formal presentation, but the battle lines seem pretty set regardless. It is, most definitely, on.

UPDATE: Wei emails that Parker held an invite-only meeting of selected Chinatown leaders yesterday afternoon, then “WHILE PEOPLE WERE STILL IN THE MEETING her folks posted that ridiculous video.” Classy.

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76ers’ “no public money” arena would require owner to get public money if any other Philly owners do

One of the enduring myths of the proposed Philadelphia 76ers arena is that it would require no public money. That’s what team owner Josh Harris keeps saying, certainly — but it carefully overlooks the fact that the proposed arena site comes with a get-out-of-property-taxes-free card, though whether that card is worth $25-90 million or $900 million depends on who you ask.

That’s a debate for a different time, though, because it turns out that Harris does, in fact, want a guarantee of straight-up public funding — under one condition:

The team is requesting that its deal with the city include a provision that could allow the 76ers to receive local taxpayer backing in the future, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations. The provision would apply only in the event that the city subsidizes a different Philly sports facility after the proposed basketball arena gets approved…

In that event, the 76ers would retroactively receive the same subsidy that the owners of the new facility get, the source said….

“If they commit to no city dollars and another arena gets built, then [the 76ers] would get the same thing” as the second arena’s owners, [councilmember Mark] Squilla said, describing the provision. “If somebody, say, Comcast wants to build a new arena and they say, we need $200 million — if we give them $200 million, then you have to go back and give the 76ers $200 million.”

So, like, any Philly sports facility? Ever? And how would a “subsidy” be defined? I have so many questions, please let this Philadelphia Inquirer article answer at least some of my questions—

In international trade, “most favored nation” status means that a designated country cannot be treated worse than any other nation…

THAT WAS NOT MY QUESTION THANK YOU

This clause has apparently become a sticking point in negotiations between Harris and Mayor Cherell Parker, and maybe helps explain Parker’s weirdly conflicted statement on the arena plan last week.

Not conflicted, meanwhile, are the many Philadelphians (organizers say 3,000-4,000, WHYY-TV says “scores”) who marched in the rain on Saturday to protest the arena plan and its potential impact on Chinatown. “It’s raining, it’s pouring and Squilla is snoring,” they chanted at one point, in reference to the councilmember who represents the proposed arena site and who has been close-lipped on whether he will support it, saying only that once legislation is ready, he’ll give community members 30 days to review it before he introduces it in the council. It’s pretty clear at this point what the community response is likely to be, but Squilla is certainly either looking to hear from constituents or looking to make it appear he is to provide cover for whatever he wants to do anyway, definitely one of those two.

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Friday roundup: Philly residents hate 76ers arena plan, Bears CEO warns Chicago not to “fall behind” in handing out stadium billions

It’s finally Bandcamp Friday again, which means I can purchase and listen to everything that’s been piling up in my shopping cart all summer. (If you’re wondering: Bad Moves, Imperial Teen, Quivers, and Verboten.) But first there’s a whole week’s worth of news to get to, so let’s get to it:

  • Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker says keeping the 76ers in her city is “a priority,” but as far as a new arena goes, “we have a process here in the city of Philadelphia that we are following, and we will allow it to play itself out.” Philadelphians, meanwhile, told pollsters commissioned by the Save Chinatown Coalition that they overwhelmingly oppose the Sixers’ arena plans, by a 56-18% margin. The actual question was “Generally speaking, would you support or oppose a proposal to build a new 76ers arena in Center City, near Chinatown, or are you neutral about it?” which is a pretty neutrally worded question; after being read arguments in favor of and opposing the arena, opposition rose to a 69-15% margin, with increased traffic and congestion and fears it would hurt the neighboring Chinatown as the two main reasons. Also, only 12% said a new Sixers arena should be a priority, as opposed to more than three-quarters who listed addressing the opioid crisis, improving schools, building affordable housing, and getting homeless people off the streets as important — no one’s asked Mayor Parker yet to rank her top priorities, but maybe it’s about time someone does?
  • The owners of the Philadelphia Flyers, meanwhile, Comcast Spectacor, who are also the Sixers’ current landlords, continue to make not having a new arena built be a priority, as you would expect. Their latest gambit is to present a competing developer who they say would build a biomedical “innovation hub” on the proposed arena site; the proposal included at least one rendering, but it didn’t feature any fireworks or lens flare, how’s that supposed to compete with an arena in politicians’ eyes?
  • Chicago Bears CEO Kevin Warren, who just re-upped his team’s contract with stadium lobbyists for another $120,000 a year, says he would prefer to get a new stadium within Chicago city limits, and anyway Chicago needs one, because “we’re missing out on concerts, multiple megaevents, including Super Bowls, Final Fours” and “if we don’t wrap our arms around some of these construction projects, we’re going to fall behind as a city.” It will be left as an exercise for readers to calculate how many Super Bowls Chicago would have to host to earn back the $1.2 billion to $2.4 billion in tax money Warren is asking for, but suffice to say that it would be at least several per year.
  • Elected officials in Indianapolis are debating whether paying for a retractable roof for the Colts stadium was a good idea, something complicated by the fact that nobody seems to know how much the retractable roof cost. (“A minimum, a minimum, at least $100 million,” says former Hamilton County council member Rick McKinney, but there was no actual line item for it in the $720 million stadium budget.) The best part of the Indianapolis Star article on this is that the “was too!” position is staked out by Steve Campbell, who when the stadium was approved in 2004 was an official in City Hall and who is now the Colts’ vice president of communications and external affairs, funny how that works out. Campbell says that city officials then wanted to make sure the stadium had every possible doodad because “we knew that the next stadium that came out would have something that we didn’t have”; presumably the only reason they didn’t add in holographic replay systems is that they didn’t know where to buy one.
  • NFL owners are so rich that they’re having a hard time not paying taxes on all their wealth when they die. That’s it, that’s the whole story, Lucky Ducky wins again!
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NJ gov officially offers Sixers owner $400m+ to move to Camden, let the bidding war commence

Last night I did a podcast interview where one of the questions was (paraphrasing) “Do you think elected officials are starting to get smarter about not offering huge subsidies to sports team owners?” This morning, we learn that New Jersey provided a partial answer:

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration told the Sixers in a letter Monday that the state could award up to $400 million in tax credits — as well as borrow hundreds of millions of dollars — to support an arena in Camden and a broader “large-scale redevelopment project.”

This is not actually news per se: It was reported back in July that a Philadelphia 76ers arena in Camden would be eligible for up to $400 million in tax credits under the state’s ASPIRE program, which one public policy watchdog had called “another last-minute lame-duck special that will benefit big developers at the expense of everyone else.” But the letter from Murphy is the first official confirmation that New Jersey is willing to offer what it already said it would offer, so there is that.

Meanwhile, what does Murphy’s letter say about that “as well as borrow hundreds of millions of dollars” bit?

Furthermore, we are also prepared to work with the legislature to enable the structuring of up to $500 million of special-purpose bonds supported by fees and surcharges on tickets, concessions and parking (with no impact to New Jersey taxpayers) to support the development of an arena.

“With no impact to New Jersey taxpayers” sounds promising, certainly, but it’s the kind of promise that has been betrayed before. To pay off $500 million in bonds would cost about $30 million a year, which would require more than $30 in ticket, concessions, and parking surcharges per Sixers fan, which is a lot. (Maybe if the arena is super-successful at attracting concerts that could be $10-20 in surcharges per fan, but that’s still a lot.) So there’s at least a possibility that some of the bonds could end up being paid from taxes on tickets, concessions, and parking, which would indeed have an impact on New Jersey taxpayers; more once we see actual bond legislation, I guess.

If you’re now thinking that for Philadelphia or Pennsylvania officials, the most rational response would be, “The Sixers stay in the Philly area and New Jersey taxpayers have to pay for the arena and Chinatown can go on being Chinatown, where do I sign?”, you are decidedly not Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro:

“I’m confident that the mayor will bring this to a conclusion that works for her, for council, for the city of Philadelphia and that keeps the Sixers here in the city.”

Not sure whether Victor Matheson saw that quote before telling NorthJersey.com that “New Jersey is one of these states that could easily be used as a pawn” to “get into a bidding war,” but if not, good prescience, Victor! And podcast host, if you’re reading this: Nope, not smarter yet, check back in a couple of decades.

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Friday roundup: Sacramento celebrates A’s move with new golf simulators, KC residents say cap public stadium funds at one-third

Sports economist Victor Matheson and I were both on a radio show this week to discuss the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Royals and Chiefs stadium situations — you can listen to it here, but first check out the rest of this week’s stadium and arena news, it’ll be quick, I promise:

  • There’s a “major economic boost” coming to Sacramento now that the Oakland A’s are relocating there temporarily, reports KCRA-TV: A new brunch-and-golf-simulators venue is opening across the street! (It was going to open there anyway, but now that the A’s are coming, the owner is trying to open it earlier.) Also, the mayor is “in discussions” with three new restaurants! Feel the excitement!
  • There is no excitement in St. Louis, where the Cardinals are still technically in the playoff hunt, but fans in the best baseball city in the world don’t want to watch .500 baseball, it turns out, or even buy hot dogs. “I love being the hot dog lady,” says hot dog lady Karen Boschert. “I’ve cut my staff down. My prices are reasonable. You can take my food into the stadium.” Maybe she could pivot her sales pitch to point out that you can buy her food and not bring it into the stadium? Just an idea.
  • Pollsters in Missouri decided to ask an unusual question of local voters: not whether taxpayers should pay toward new stadiums for the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals, but how much. The average was two-thirds team, one-sixth state, one-sixth city and county, which is kind of arbitrary and doesn’t account for whether the public would get back any share of revenues or community benefits or anything, but sure it sounds fair. Ish. Time will tell if the team owners come back with “zero-thirds team, poke in the eye with a sharp stick public.”
  • Most of the San Antonio residents who testified at a Wednesday hearing on a $160 million Missions minor-league baseball stadium “voiced concerns and skepticism,” according to Fox San Antonio. For actual quotes we have to turn to KSAT, which notes that a local arts and social justice activist said, “This project is all about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer,” while a resident of a housing complex that would be demolished to make way for the stadium said, “I would not be able to get somewhere else, and I would end up in the street yet again.”
  • Chicago’s city budget is facing a $982.4 million shortfall, and Mayor Brandon Johnson says, “There are sacrifices that will be made,” but not new Bears and White Sox stadiums, those are important even if they would cost the city upwards of $1.2 billion and $2 billion respectively, sacrifices are for little people.
  • Team-funded studies of a Philadelphia 76ers arena say it would be great, other studies show it would be a disaster; the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board says it’s up to the mayor and city council to figure out where the truth lies in the middle!
  • Another group of developers unrelated to either the Royals or the city has come up with renderings for a new downtown baseball stadium, and guys, you should at least look up how many players are on the field for a baseball game.
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Friends don’t let friends read economic impact consulting reports

The clowning on the CSL International economic impact report claiming a pile of tax revenue benefits from a new Philadelphia 76ers arena continues today, this time in the pages of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The paper spoke to economists J.C. Bradbury and Geoffrey Propheter and real estate professor Arthur Acolin, and the resulting comments were about what you’d expect if you’ve ever spent five minutes talking to sports economists about CSL and its ilk:

“The study is completely useless,” said Geoffrey Propheter, a professor of public affairs at the University of Colorado-Denver and the author of Major League Sports and the Property Tax. “That’s not a commentary on if it’s done well or not. That’s just a commentary on economic impact studies.”

And:

J.C. Bradbury, an economist at Kennesaw State University, called the CSL report a “concocted PR document” and said the firm was “notorious for doing these for-hire projections for paying clients” that fly in the face of “academic consensus.”

“There is nothing credible here,” Bradbury said. “These are not rigorous studies of observed outcomes; they are fanciful forecasts of an imagined future.”

And:

[Propheter] pointed to a disclaimer at the beginning of the report, which states, “All information provided to us was not audited and was assumed to be correct based on our professional judgement and experience.”

“I always get a kick out of them,” Propheter said of those types of statements.

And:

Arthur Acolin, a real estate professor at the University of Washington who has studied the trajectory of Chinatowns in cities across the U.S. … found that the displacement of nearby businesses and residents caused by the arena project could cost as much as $908 million in lost tax revenue. (Like the Sixers, Acolin’s paper used nominal values, meaning the $908 million finding is comparable to the nearly $1.1 billion tax revenue gain reported by CSL.)

“As part of the public discussion, I was thinking about the people who are currently there and the businesses that are currently there,” he said. “Those neighborhoods on the margins of downtown are very vulnerable to changes. A small change in environment can make the difference of being in business and being out of business.”

None of this is surprising, but it’s all still useful to have in the pages of a major news site, since all too often actual economists only appear briefly at the end of articles laying out the consultants’ BS findings. (Points to the Inquirer for using an actual photo of the proposed arena site, too, rather than the team owner’s vaportecture renderings.) Which is the entire point of the BS findings: It’s not to try to come up with realistic cost-benefit figures for a stadium or arena project — CSL doesn’t reveal who worked on its Philadelphia report, but the lead officer for its Frisco office, which is credited for the report, is a guy with a bachelor’s degree in finance — but rather to flood the zone with fancy charts in hopes that no one will look too hard at whether any of it makes any damn sense. It’ll be a great day when actual economic studies get all the space they need in the newspapers, and sports team owners have to hold a bake sale to get anyone to read their bogus numbers.

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Clown study claims Philadelphia can too support two arenas, no really it’ll be great honest

Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker released the city’s studies of a new 76ers arena on the edge of Chinatown yesterday, including an economic impact report by everybody’s favorite LOLconsultants, CSL. And what does that study, confusingly dated “July 2024” which it hasn’t been for a while now, say?

KEY TAKEAWAY: CSL estimates the Philadelphia CBSA, with the presence of a second major league arena, could host 53 ANNUAL INCREMENTAL TICKETED EVENTS and generate approximately 613,000 ATTENDEES.

So if Philadelphia had two arenas instead of one, it would get an additional 53 non-Sixers and –Flyers events (35 concerts, 15 “family shows,” and 3 other sporting events) compared to what it does now. CSL calculated this by looking at the average number of events hosted by arenas in cities with one venue vs. those in cities with two — which seemingly doesn’t account for the fact that cities with more arenas tend to be larger, and so should expect to host more events anyway. It would make more sense to look at how many more events, if any, Philly had back when it had two arenas, before the Spectrum was torn down and turned into a parking lot because the Flyers owners figured it would be more lucrative that way, but LOLconsultants.

(The report did look at the increase in events in New York City and Dallas-Fort Worth when new arenas were built, but the New York City area has more than triple the population of Philadelphia, so maybe isn’t the best comparable.)

CSL goes on to estimate that all these new vaporconcerts would generate an additional $11.9 million in annual tax revenue for the city, $4.3 million for the local school district, and $6 million a year for the state. Divided by 613,000 annual attendees, that comes to $36 in taxes per ticket buyer, which seems like an awful lot, but it’s hard to argue with math like — well, the report doesn’t actually show its math, but surely it must have used some kind of math.

Contrast all this with a study commissioned by Comcast Spectacor, the Flyers owners, which concluded that “there isn’t sufficient content to support two buildings” and “no comparable markets have two arenas in the same city,” and that a new arena would only result in 8 to 12 new events in Philadelphia. That study also didn’t show its math — or maybe it did, but the study summary page links to an expired WeTransfer download, so we’ll never know — and obviously the Flyers owners have an incentive to claim that a new competing arena to theirs is a bad idea for the city. But then, CSL is owned by Legends Entertainment, a joint venture of the Dallas Cowboys and New York Yankees, so really it’s just competing conflicts of interest all the way down.

Parker’s administration also released a community impact analysis by a passel of consultants — BJH Advisors and Sojourner Consulting in partnership with Urban Partners, AKRF, Drs. Susannah Laramee Kidd and Laureen Hom, and Creative Development Partners, if you were wondering — that studied both the proposed Philly arena site and the neighborhood impact of new arenas in Brooklyn, Sacramento, and Washington, D.C., and its findings are quite a bit less rosy:

Although the project will not lead to direct housing displacement, there is evidence for increased indirect displacement of small businesses and low- and fixed- income individuals through gentrification and loss of cultural identity in Chinatown if the 76 Place were built…

One out of five small businesses in Chinatown are positioned to experience positive net economic benefit from the Arena. These businesses are mainly in the entertainment, food, and hotel sectors.

Half of the small businesses in Chinatown are not positioned to benefit from the Arena and may experience negative impacts. Most of these businesses are in the financial and professional services, healthcare, supermarket/grocery, and wholesale sectors.

Tl;dr: Chinatown is already facing gentrification pressures, and an arena on its doorstep would only make this worse.

The math used to arrive at these numbers is a little hard to follow as well, but at least it’s included — and based on “focus groups, interviews, and in Chinatown, three types of surveys (travel surveys, street intercept surveys, and small business surveys), business inventory, property tax analysis, and a historical literature review,” which is maybe a little better than “we looked at other cities with two arenas and they seem happy.”

The news coverage so far appears to be giving equal weight to both reports (plus design and traffic analyses), even the outlets that don’t know the mayor’s name, so that’s something. Though ultimately the fate of the arena plan is likely to come down to the local councilmember, Mark Squilla, who says he’s “comfortable making that decision” and has hedged like crazy about where he’ll come down on it. Maybe the public feedback form responses will sway him? Probably not, that’s not usually how local politics works, but it can’t hurt to try.

UPDATE: College of the Holy Cross sports economist Victor Matheson chimes in (in an email to a mutual connection, reprinted by their permission)

1. Including NYC and LA into comparisons with Philly for event utilization is complete economic malpractice. These are metro areas that are 2 to 3 times as large as Philly and have the population base to demand 2-3 times as many concerts. In addition, the arenas are serving much more geographically diverse locations. The proposed Philly arenas are like 6-7 miles apart, maybe 20 minutes even in traffic. The Forum and Honda center in LA are about 60 miles apart and Prudential Center in Newark is about 50 miles from UBS Arena on Long Island and both are way over an hour separated during normal traffic conditions. Any suggestion that a 2nd Philly arena will generate business like additional arenas in those two places is absurd. 

2.  There are other multiple sport arenas in DC, Toronto, Boston (and LA) that have more events than Philly, so that arena isn’t even at capacity now. If it isn’t at capacity now, why would one project a huge increase in events?

3. When comparing cities with multiple arenas, one should be looking at the smaller of the two arenas in comparable size cities to see the incremental impact. So, Phoenix, a similar sized city has an arena with 48 events like Philly and their second venue has 23 events. Minneapolis/St. Paul have one with 37 and a second with 27. A new arena is likely to add more like 25 new events, not 53 as projected. And you are not likely to add lots more high-demand events, because they already come. The new events you will get are the lower-tier events that are currently crowded out by the big events.

4. New events coming to Philly doesn’t mean more tax revenue for Philly. It means more money for out-of-state artists on tour and more tax revenue collected at the venue, but it means less revenue for other activities in the Philadelphia area. Concerts and entertainment tours are terrible in terms of leakages as local consumers put money in the pockets of out-of-state entertainers and not in the pockets of local small businesses.

And University of Colorado-Denver economist Geoffrey Propheter adds:

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Sixers could move to Camden for $400m arena subsidy, according to shadowy figures maybe wearing Sixers caps

We’ve seen the value to team owners of generating interstate bidding wars in Kansas City, now could Philadelphia 76ers Josh Harris be the next to try the gambit? According to ROI-NJ, which is apparently “the brand-new, go-to media company created to inform and connect businesses in New Jersey,” somebody unnamed wants you to think so!

The state of New Jersey is making a serious push to convince the Philadelphia 76ers to move to New Jersey and into a new arena that would be built in Camden, four people familiar with the discussions confirmed to ROI-NJ.

Discussions between top state officials and leaders from Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment (which owns the team) have been ongoing for the last two months, the sources said.

So that could be people with the state of New Jersey leaking it, or people with the 76ers. Three guesses which one has more incentive to spread this story, and the first two don’t count.

The 76ers’ current arena plans, you’ll recall, are to get out of being a tenant at the Flyers-owned Wells Fargo Center by building a new arena on top of a failing mall near downtown. Since that site comes with a full property tax exemption, it would be partly subsidized by taxpayers, though with few fiscal details having been revealed, estimates of the city cost have ranged all the way from $25 million to $900 million. The bigger concern expressed locally has been the likely impact on the adjacent Chinatown neighborhood, where community leaders have pointed warningly to the near-complete disappearance of D.C.’s Chinatown after an arena opened there in 1997.

As for Camden, there would reportedly be tax kickbacks on the table there as well:

While HBSE’s owners have indicated a willingness to pay for the entirety of the project, coming to New Jersey would make them eligible for a tax credit of up to $400 million through the state’s Aspire program.

Aspire, it turns out, is a relatively new New Jersey state program that provides up to $350 million in “gap funding” for “transformative projects” that have a private investment of at least $100 million and, for commercial buildings, are at least 100,000 square feet in size. (I can’t find any references to $400 million in tax credits being available per project, but there’s a lot of fine print.) Eligible projects also must be “not economically feasible” without the subsidy (easy enough for an arena developer to claim), be located in a designated “Incentive Area” (all of Camden is included as eligible on the state’s map), and “result in a net positive benefit to the State” (“benefit” is not defined here), among other things. Peter Chen of the New Jersey Policy Perspective think tank last winter called the expanded Aspire program “another last-minute lame-duck special that will benefit big developers at the expense of everyone else.”

Would Harris throw away his shot at a downtown Philadelphia arena subsidized by tax money in favor of a Camden arena subsidized by even more tax money? Who knows! Would he like to pit both states against each other, in hopes of shaking loose public money in one place or another? Undoubtedly! Would either state be better off letting the other win being the Sixers’ home, putting up with traveling across the river to see games in exchange for not having to help pay for an arena? Quite possibly, depending on the size of the tax kickback and how much new tax revenue would actually result from having the arena in their state! Will we see in-depth public discussion of all these costs and benefits, or mostly just panicking about who’s “losing” the Sixers? We can always hope, but you probably know the answer as well as I do.

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Sixers arena could rack up $90m worth of city tax kickbacks, says property tax expert

If you want an example of how to actually use research to fact-check claims by elected officials (and disgraced former ones) about stadium deals instead of parroting their claims, all props to the Philadelphia Inquirer, which ran an excellent analysis this morning of the tax subsidy plan being considered for a new 76ers arena.

The total subsidy amount for the Sixers arena has been really hard to pin down, in part because it’s not a direct cash subsidy but rather a property tax exemption — meaning it would depend on the assessed value of a future arena on the site of a failing mall near Chinatown — and in part because nobody is saying yet if it would be a full exemption or if Sixers owners Josh Harris and David Adelman would be offsetting the cost by providing the city with some payments in lieu of property taxes, or PILOTs.

Adelman told the Inquirer that the financing mechanism, in which he and Harris would hand over ownership of the arena to the city in order to get out of paying property taxes, but then pay a (presumably smaller) PILOT instead, is needed because it’s too hard to properly assess the value of sports venues. But the Inquirer then did something unusual in these journalistic end times: It asked a property tax expert.

That is not true, said Geoffrey Propheter, a professor of public affairs at the University of Colorado-Denver and the author of Major League Sports and the Property Tax. While assessing the value of arenas is complex, it is not impossible, and 13 venues for American professional sports teams are on the tax rolls, he said.

He noted that the newest NBA arena — the Chase Center in San Francisco — was developed without any PILOTs or any other public subsidies, including none of the state and federal programs the 76ers remain open to. The Golden State Warriors own the real estate for the Chase Center, which opened in 2019, and their property tax bill this year is about $19.5 million, he said.

For Propheter, the real motivation for teams to donate their real estate to municipalities is to save money.

Propheter went on to calculate exactly how much money Harris and Adelman would save: between $48.8 million and $181 million over 30 years. (Their total tax savings would actually be about 30% more, but they would get that additional chunk automatically thanks to another tax-break program that kicks back 90% of commercial property taxes for the first ten years.) That would come to between $25 million and $90 million in present value cost for the city — though Propheter notes if the Sixers owners want a more exact tax kickback estimate, they need to release more details of how much they plan to spend on various aspects of the arena, and which bits they would pay PILOTs on.

The Inquirer article doesn’t go into it, but there’s also the question of opportunity costs: How much tax money could Philadelphia be bringing in if it didn’t go through the disruption of tearing down the mall and building a tax-exempt arena? A real estate professor previously estimated this as leaving as much as $900 million on the table, though using some extremely back-of-the-envelope math. It’d be great if the Inquirer or another Philadelphia news outlet could conduct a thorough report on all the possible arena costs to the public — preferably before the city council takes up arena legislation this fall.

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Friday roundup: More vague Royals threats, Coyotes trying every trick in book at once, plus: stadium theme song challenge!

Not gonna lie, this week has been a lot, what with Kansas City and environs voting down a Royals and Chiefs tax subsidy proposal and the Oakland A’s announcing a temporary move to Sacramento, requiring eight full posts in four days. (If you want to show your appreciation, or just your sympathy, you know where to find the tip jar.) I’m tempted to let you all go a day early, but then what would we do with all the other news that happened this week and got short shrift? Let’s take it one bullet point at a time and see how it goes:

  • Kansas City Royals owner John Sherman’s wife, Marny Sherman, for some reason got to be the one to make move threats in the wake of Tuesday’s “no” vote on a $500 million sales tax surcharge for the Royals and Chiefs, posting on Facebook that “neither team will work with Jackson County again.” Presumably she means to imply that the teams will either look to neighboring Clay County or the neighboring state of Kansas — she concluded her post, “We will be lucky if both teams wind up in Kansas. At least still in the area!” — though neither has a stadium funding plan in place right now, which is a big part of why the team owners were focusing on Jackson County. Meanwhile, Missouri state Sen. Bill Eigel — yes, the flamethrower guy — says, “I know of no path in the Missouri Senate where we’re going to do any public funding of sports stadiums” and “I think that would be resisted vociferously and extensively,” and while Eigel doesn’t have a leadership position, I’m not sure I’d want to risk finding out what he means by “resist extensively.”
  • Arizona Coyotes owner Alex Meruelo is dead set on winning an auction for public land on which to build a new arena, and also is looking for someone who wants to buy the team, and also is threatening to move the team somewhere if he doesn’t get the land. Plus, the Arizona Republic reports that “team leadership is also likely to seek a special taxing arrangement to help finance construction” if it does win the land bid. Alex Meruelo is also a lot — maybe he might want to consider having one less pregnancy?
  • Marc Normandin has taken on the question of why other MLB owners are content to let John Fisher have the A’s spend three years playing in a minor-league stadium and then potentially move them to baseball’s smallest market while continuing to rake in revenue-sharing checks, and concluded that other owners are not content at all, but they’re also not going to do anything about it: “Owners are probably just happy that the Fisher saga is nearly at an end, and that this potentially opens up the path for them to split expansion fees once the A’s are fully settled in somewhere new in a new park, and hey, in the meantime, one fewer suitor on free agency means prices get to come down.”
  • More on the Sacramento River Cats stadium that is supposed to host the A’s the next three years, via SFGate:  [River Cats broadcaster Bill] Laskey mentioned that the press amenities are dreadfully lacking, with only two total broadcast booths — one for each radio team — and, in Laskey’s estimation, space for four to eight people in the press box. When the occasional River Cats game was televised, Laskey told SFGATE the TV crew would take over one of the booths, forcing a radio broadcaster to call the game outside under a canopy, even in the blistering Sacramento sun.”
  • Philadelphia’s Civic Design Review committee called 76ers owner Josh Harris’s plan to build an arena on the downtown Gallery mall site “undercooked” and a continuation of the bad public planning that led to the failed mall in the first place, with one member saying, “We need to think about the real giveback here and whether we should build this thing.” The committee is only advisory, but coupled with the fact that city agencies are now months overdue producing studies of the arena project that would allow a city council vote, all the trash talking only adds to the project’s distinct lack of momentum.
  • Why should St. Petersburg-area taxpayers spend around $1.5 billion on a new Tampa Bay Rays stadium to revitalize the area around the current stadium when it could just build all the other stuff like housing and museums and skip the expensive part? That’s the question being asked by Tampa Bay Times opinion editor Graham Brink, before acknowledging that there are intangible benefits to having a sports team: “When the team wins, the city feels a sense of collective pride. What’s that worth?” That’s actually been studied, and the answer is: Not as much as you might think.
  • I had to head back home after one day of last week’s sports economics conference and so sadly missed taking in a Baltimore Orioles game with the assembled economists, but fortunately the Baltimore Banner has the recap.
  • This interview with Good Jobs First director Greg LeRoy took place before the Alexandria, Virginia arena plan for the Washington Capitals and Wizards got a fork stuck in it, but it’s a great reminder of both how dubious the economic arguments were for the deal (MuniCap, the consultant that came up with $75 parking fees to justify the arena, is “not a company known for saying no, let’s put it that way,” says LeRoy) and how dumb it is that team owners refuse to release details of their own numbers on the grounds it’s “proprietary” information.
  • And this interview with me by Debtwire took place right after the Kansas City stadium tax vote, but we covered a lot of ground regarding other cities’ stadium and arena shenanigans as well. If only we had had a theme song
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