After I reported here Friday about Detroit’s WXYZ-TV reporting without comment that the new Detroit City F.C. soccer stadium getting $88 million in tax breaks “is expected to generate $25 million in annual economic impact,” Kennesaw State economist J.C. Bradbury dug up the actual report making that projection, and hoo boy:
Good grief. This is the document being used to claim that the Detroit minor-league soccer stadium will generate a $25 mil economic impact *per year*. It's nothing but ridiculous assertions. Reporting this as some sort of credible assessment is negligence. detroitmigov.app.box.com/v/DCFC-CBO-R…
“Report” is probably a misnomer: The document, produced by the Detroit Economic Growth Corporation, is in fact a four-page slide deck, one of which is just a title screen. The remainder consists of numbers with no sourcing beyond “based on data provided by Detroit City FC and Visit Detroit,” and which assume 20 non-soccer events a year drawing 10,000 fans each. More troublingly, the projections also compare the economic impact from a stadium with the economic impact of nothing at all ever being built on the site (ignoring opportunity cost), don’t attempt to account for what spending at the stadium site might be cannibalized from elsewhere in the city (ignoring the substitution effect), and conflate present-day value with future revenue —it turns out that $25 million a year figure is actually the average over 30 years, with it starting at $18.4 million and growing over time.
The real kicker, though, is the slide posted by Bradbury, which rather than “economic impact” (money changing hands in your city) looks at “fiscal benefits,” which is how much tax money would come in as a result of a project. That projection comes to an average of $407,000 a year over the next 30 years. Even if we ignore that much of that tax revenue would be backloaded, that’s still only about $6 million worth of new taxes Detroit would bring in from the new stadium — in exchange for redirecting $45 million in taxes (the present value of $88 million over 30 years) to Detroit City F.C.’s ex-lobbyist owner.
(To distract from that sadly low tax revenue number, DEGC stuck the unrelated “annual new visitor spending” number at the bottom of that slide as well, which is some next-level misdirection, even for a clown document.)
It’s still unclear exactly what the whole $88 million would go toward: The DEGC document shows 84% of it as arriving via “brownfield TIF reimbursement” funding, but the act authorizing brownfield TIFs allows the proceeds to be used for all kinds of “infrastructure improvements,” demolition, and other things that aren’t specifically environmental cleanup. So it’s altogether possible that the soccer team owners will be able to use a large chunk of that $45 million worth of tax kickbacks on building, if not their stadium proper, amenities for their stadium, in exchange for contributing just $6 million in new taxes — and that’s the best-case scenario, according to the team’s own rosy projections. Good grief, indeed.

